Tax Rebates And Employment:a Cointegration Study Based On China’s Industry Panel Data

China has gradually implementing export-oriented strategy for thirty years, the dependence on foreign trade increased year by year.China’s enterprises get into "winter", because of the reduction of external demand which is caused by the2008financial crisis. Many SMEs cut or closed down, most of the migrant workers return home or lose job.In order to alleviate operating difficulties, the government has increased the export tax rebate seven times within one year. But we can see clearly that adjustment policy is difference between industries. What are the reasons behind it? In addition to exports, Does employment is one factor to be considered when the policy adjusted? Can it promote employment? If it does, How is the extent? Meanwhile, the factor intensity is different in different industries, what is the employment effect of different sectors? This article attempts to answer these questions.First of all, we learn from Sheng Bin (2002), the government is divided into three types, that is national model, interest groups and the mixed model.Then use these theories to analyze the formation mechanism of export tax rebate policy. The analysis shows that employment is one of the factors which impacts the export tax rebate policy.Secondly, on the basis of previous results, we introduce a two-stage game model. Analysised the impact of the export tax rebate on the exports firstly, followed by the introduction of the labor demand function to analyze the impact of the export tax rebate rate on corporate demand for labor. Apart from the export tax rebate rate, we also refer to other factors affecting employment, obtaining theoretical model of the export tax rebate on employment.Thirdly, according to the theoretical model, we construct the empirical analysis.we use a VAR model, because the model can not only analysis the long-run equilibrium relationship, but also analysis short-term dynamic relationship of the impact on employment. So we can draw a conclusion:increasing the export tax rebate rate will promote employment, but the effect is different in different industries. Specifically, labor-intensive industries are greatest influenced, followed by capital-intensive industry, resource-intensive industry are the least impacted.