The Theory And Application Of Improved Gray Theory In The Commercial Vehicle Sales Forecasting

With the rapid development of economic globalization, the industrial structures of each country constantly adjust to fit the increasingly fierce international competition. As a pillar of the country’s economic development, the automotive industry plays an important role in promoting their industrialization, China is experiencing a period of new industrialization, the development of the automotive industry, especially the commercial vehicles, have played a catalytic role in promoting the development of industrialization, Industrialization has accelerated the process of urbanization, Urbanization stimulated all kinds of passenger and freight markets prosperity, Accompanied by the expansion and diversity of consumer demands, Enterprise should master the market demands in order to get much more returns, While recent years the enterprise’s forecasting isn’t accurate because of the worse forecasting methods or the backward methods, which result in the products backlog and inventory increased phenomena. In this case, how to master accurately the market demands and how important the factors for the commercial vehicle business is becoming the primary problem.The paper used improved gray system theory to improve the accuracy of forecasting facing this situation, At the same time, the paper had also a detailed analysis to the various factors affecting the demand for commercial vehicles, and setting up a detailed index system to make out key factors affecting their needs, The paper’s main works have the following aspects:Firstly, it elaborates the necessity and importance of the commercial vehicle sales forecasting to the development of enterprises, and anglicizing the problems existing commercial enterprises based on the summary to the sales forecasting and the forecasting methods in domestic and international commercial enterprises, and pave the way for subsequent analysis; Secondly, it offered the theory supporting for the analysis of sales forecasting and the influencing factors from enterprise management, predictive theories and decision Science, and put forward all kinds of influencing factors in commercial vehicle demands form the macro environment, industry environment and micro environment aspects, based on the detailed analysis for the current status of commercial vehicle manufacturing industry; Then, putting the seasonal variation factor into the gray prediction model, and proved the feasibility of the model by doing some checks, esTab.lishing the index evaluation system according to the demand for commercial vehicles of various factors, doing a weighted analysis for the grey relational model and esTab.lishing the process of the commercial vehicle manufacturers in making sales forecasting and decision-making; Taking XX company as an example, verifying the applicability of improved grey relational model in sales forecasting and decision-making of commercial vehicle manufacturers, At last, put forward to the suggestions improving the accuracy of sales forecasting and product sales of commercial vehicle manufacturing enterprises from the market demands, business perspective and the product itself three aspects.In short, the paper have a detailed summary of the various factors affecting the demand for commercial vehicles in many ways, improved the accuracy of corporate sales forecasts by putting the seasonal variation factor into the gray prediction model, as well as improve the accuracy of the influence factors in the total impact by weighting for various index in the gray relational model, and Taking XX company’s heavy truck sales as an example, verified the feasibility of the model, it has important practical significance for the sales forecasting of other products in commercial vehicles enterprises.