Research On New Product Conceptual Model Decision Making Based On Quality Of House And Sales Forecasting

The research and development of new products is of great significance to improve the value of a firm and enhance the market competitiveness,and how to choose the new product conceptual model is the key step in the product development process.The wrong choice of conceptual model is one of the main reasons of the low success rate of the R&D of the new product.Therefore,improving the effectiveness of decision-making at this stage plays an important role in increasing the return on investment(ROI)of enterprise product development.In recent years,for the conceptual model of new product design,domestic and foreign scholars research mainly in two aspects.On one hand,the research is technology-driven that comparing with competitors in the same industry about the new product core technology and production technology to modify the new products R&D program.But this approach is limited to the product itself and ignore the potential demand for products of the market.On the other hand,for the emotion of product developers and instant demand of consumers,scholars research on the prospects and risks of the new product to make decisions from the R&D programs.But the real immediate integrity demand of consumers can not be guaranteed,the new products that put into the market cannot match the real needs of consumers,that leads to the low success rate of the new products.It can be seen that the current research on the conceptual model of new product research and development lacks the balance between the product technology,the customer demand and the market potential.This paper takes the smartphone product as the research object,which is widely used by people,updates with the development of the times and has diverse customer needs,and puts forward a way can consider the customer demand and market potential on the same time to make more reasonable decision for the new product development conceptual model.The main contents of this paper include the following aspects:1)Built the consumer demand model of the smartphone product and confirmed the weight about each demand factor by the market survey and data analysis.The connection system of the customer demand and the parameters of the smartphone product is established.2)Set a triangular fuzzy linguistic evaluation set through the Analytic Hierarchy Processing and the Fuzzy Processing to build an improved House of Quality model based on customer demand-technical parameters relationship matrix,and confirmed the weight of each technical parameter based on consumer demand.Then put the weight into the improved triangular fuzzy-TOPSIS model to carry out the sorting and filtering for the R&D programs of the new product.3)The PSO-RBF neural network prediction model based on the real-time market sales situation is established to predict the market potential of each mobile phone conceptual program.In this paper,we first propose a parabola-based particle swarm inertia weighting factor selection method to optimize the particle swarm optimization balance between the global search and local search.The improved PSO is used to optimize the weight,center and base width of RBF network.and the mapping relationship between particles of PSO and parameters of RBF network is established.The improved PSO-RBF model is used to forecast the optimal R&D programs to carry out the sorting and filtering for the R&D programs of the new product.4)Based on the established mathematical model above,the yaahp and MATLAB software were used to simulate and analyze the actual data of the new product of a brand mobile phone as the experimental object.The new product was used as the experimental sample to evaluate the prediction accuracy and prediction of the PSO-RBF model effect.At the same time,the reliability and correctness of the two-stage product conceptual model selection method that combined with the fuzzy the house of quality and the sales forecasting are vertified.According to the results of the validation,we can see that the single factor decision-making method can easily ignore the influence of other factors on the success of new product research and development and reduce the success rate of the new product research and development,so as to bring losses to the enterprise.But multi-factor combination of decision-making rules can take into account the impact of multiple factors on product development,to a certain extent,enhance the effectiveness of new product development conceptual selection decision-making and have a very important practical significance for the new product development.