Following The Leader:A Study Of Individual Analysts’earnings Forecasts About Influencing Factors Of The Security Analysts Forecast In China

Analysts through the collection, assessment, analysis of public and private, to provide investors with earnings forecasts and investment recommendations, play an important information intermediary role in improving market efficiency. Been questioned but widespread analyst herding behavior to the prediction and the objectivity of the recommendations is complicated by analysts as the effectiveness of information intermediaries. Who is the information leader is the basis of the research analyst herding behavior, because the information leader in not only an important impact on the market, other analysts predict a guiding role. Timeliness of information characteristics and chronological relations constitute the leadership and herd the necessary conditions on the information content of the report by the forecast issued the time of the leadership-follow the relations of the extensive attention of academics, research analysts, leading-to follow the behavior understanding of the analyst efficiency and "herd behavior" and thus deepen the understanding of the financial market behavior has important academic and practical value. At present, the analyst leading-to follow the published empirical research is still lacking, but analysts predict that the endogenous doubt time decision highlights the importance of empirical research, on the one hand, need more empirical evidence to support the nature point of view, and the other the one hand, endogenous also means a different market environment, competitive differentiation and value judgments characteristics will affect the leading-to follow the release decision-making behavior, makes the empirical analysis based on different specific market as an important way to meet specific market. Especially for the emerging capital markets, including China, the information disclosure environment in mature markets there are significant differences in this market environment, differences in the analyst leading-to follow the behavior is ignored by Western scholars, based on the Chinese market study to the empirical evidence, but also in-depth understanding of China’s securities market an indispensable key.Using the data of the Chinese A-share analyst reports, empirical investigation of analysts ’characteristics, organization and competitive environment leading-to follow the behavior of analysts’forecasts released. The results show that analyst characteristics and affiliation with leading degrees for a significant effect. Other stock in the follow-up stocks with longer experience, the higher the historical leading to degrees, with longer general research experience, and their organizations the year released a report a few more analysts publish leading more:and star honors analysts, on the later history of leading degrees publish leading smaller: analysts to follow up the number of shares released leading degree of indirect positive spillovers influence. Competitive environment have a significant effect on the release of leading degrees. The target stock, the more the nu.mber of follow-up analyst released ahead of the bigger: rating standard deviation representative of differences is released leading to the degree of negative impact to the risk effect and the positive effect of opportunity. Further sub-industry regression results show that analysts ahead of the release behavior of the influencing factors are different in different industries and. therefore, to distinguish the industry background, a correct understanding of the analyst leading factors affecting release behavior.