The Research On The Demand Fluctuations And Composite Index Of China’s Car Market

The automotive industry is the pillar industry, played a crucial role in the national economy, and China has surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest auto market in2009. With China’s per capita GDP exceeded$3,000, the car market has entered the mass consumption stage, consumer demand will experience rapid growth. However, for a long time the domestic scholars have mainly focused on the demand analysis and forecasting, and ignored in the study of cyclical fluctuations on the car market. Since2001, China’s car market had experienced two severe cyclical fluctuations, after each explosive growth there is a period of recession, and cause a greater impact on auto companies,"ups and downs" fluctuations has become the main characteristics on China’s car market.Firstly, the article analyzes the characteristics of the car market since2001, and qualitative research the influence of some factors on the car market in recent years, such us economic growth, interest rates, oil prices, industrial policy, urbanization and so on. Secondly, on this basis, the article focus on the dynamic impact of petrol prices, disposable income and interest rates on the car demands by the time-varying parameter model, and further analysis the structure changes of China’s car market behind the dynamic effects. The last, the article collects the monthly macroeconomic data related to the car market, Upstream and downstream industry data as well as the car market data since2001, and uses the time difference correlation analysis, the K-L information method to filter the indicator data, then builds the leading index, coincident index, lagging index by composite method about China’s car market. On this basis, the article analyzes the relationship between China’s car market, macroeconomic fluctuations and the stock market.The study results show that the cyclical fluctuations of the car market in China is the result of the role of various influencing factors. The influence of various factors have been the dynamic changing process, as China’s car market to mature, the impact of economic factor on China’s car market growing. The policy of the car industry is an important incentive for the volatility of China’s car market. the government should take full account of the long-term stability of the policy, to avoid short-term policy impact on the market. The coincident index of China’s car market shows that since2011the car market has entering a period of stable development, after the explosive growth from2009and2010. But both the leading index and the coincident index of macroeconomic show that China’s car market may appear to decline again in the second half of2012, which deserves the attention of companies and government.