Research Into Early Warning Index System In Hefei Real Estate On The Basis Of Periodic Fluctuation Theory

With the unceasing development of economy in China, real estate has been occupying a bigger and bigger proportion in our national economy, which results in the increase of its status year after year. However, the rapid rise in apartment purchase price in recent years brings about a new argument over the foam in real estate. In order to solve the problems, such as whether there is the foam in real estate market or not, and how can the market develop healthily, we need a thorough understanding about the development of real estate market. We already have had a clear mind of periodic fluctuation in economics, and we have established relatively mature and feasible theoretical system that has a crucial role in guiding us to grasp macro economy better. The periodic fluctuation theory in real estate was put forward in 1920s, but due to the comparatively late start, it hasn't formed a universal theoretical system.Using the theory as the starting point, this paper states the relative theories about periodic fluctuation in real estate. Basing on these theories, this study establishes an early warning index system, and with the help of diffusion index and composite index in statistics, it describes the periodic fluctuant situation in Hefei real estate market. This research aims to find out the fluctuant disciplines and features in this market, and come up with some corresponding macro policies to guide the healthier and more stable development of the market. The ultimate goal of this paper is to use the established index system to reflect the reality of the development in Hefei real estate market, so as to provide a theoretical and practical foundation for the government to make logical decisions, the investors to invest effectively and the common customers to consume rationally.