The Empirical Study Of The Relationship Between Urbanization And Industrial Structural About Anhui Province

Urbanization and industrial structure are the two phenomena which are objective and can not be ignored in the development of economic and social. They can cause each other and promote each other. During the process of the change in industrial structure, urbanization advances the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure through the rising and driving to the three industries. Besides, the adjustment of industrial structure also requires cities to provide a broader market, which also has an important role in promoting the development of urbanization.Since the reform and opening up, the urbanization and industrial structure of Anhui Province developed rapidly, with urbanization rate improved continuously and the industrial structure optimized constantly. But compared with the developed cities, the level of urbanization and industrial structure in Anhui Province is still backward. As follows:a lower level of urban infrastructure, unbalanced development, irrational inner structure of industrial structure, a lower the proportion of tertiary industry, and far lagged urban development behind industrial development. Many problems exist in the urbanization and industrial structure in Anhui Province, which has brought a series of negative consequences to the social and economic development, hindering the rapid economic growth. Therefore, the study on interactive and coordinated development of urbanization and industrial structure adjustment in Anhui Province is necessary and of great significance to promote further economic development of Anhui Province.This paper uses the methods of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. On the basis of lots of literature and theories, we combine with the development situation and problem between urbanization and industrial structure in Anhui Province, use the empirical model and select corresponding data from1978to2010, to make empirical analysis and research about urbanization and industrial in Anhui Province. In the end, we can make relevant policy according to the previous conclusion, which can provide a theoretical basis to promote urbanization and optimize industrial structure in Anhui Province.There are six sections contained in this thesis. In the first section, the background and significance, research idea, contents, methods, key/difficult points and innovation of this study are described. Some theories and literatures of urbanization and industrial structure of domestic and foreign cities are reviewed in the second section. In the third section, the concept, metrics and general laws of urbanization and industrial are defined, and the relationship between urbanization and tertiary industrial structure is analyzed. In the fourth section, the current status and problems lying in urbanization and industrial structure are analyzed, taking Anhui Province as the example. In the fifth section, through correlation analysis of SPSS, the ADF stationary test, cointegration analysis, the Granger causality test statistics measurement, empirical analysis on the relationship and causality between tertiary industrial structure and urbanization Anhui Province are carried out. In the sixth section, the conclusions of the above mentioned analysis are presented, and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on urbanization and development of the industrial structure in Anhui Province are made.Through the empirical analysis, we can get the following conclusions:the urbanization and three industrial structures in Anhui Province have obvious correlation. The urbanization and the first industry have a negative correlation, while have a positive among the second and the third industry. The level of urbanization and the first structure do not exist Granger-causality, however, there exists a bidirectional Granger-causality between urbanization and the output structure of the second industry with the employment structure of the third industry, yet there also exists a unidirectional Granger-Causality between urbanization and employment structure of the second industry with the output structure of the third industry. The unclear of the Causality relation is due to system factors、policy factors and the selection of different targets. As a result, we should comprehensively push forward the urbanization and industrial structure development of Anhui Province, and promote the coordinated development of urbanization and industrial structure, besides improve it from system.