Based On Jj Test Consumer Financial Contribution To The Research On Economic Growth

Foreign trade, investment, consumption is known as the economic development of China "three carriages", but the development of Chinese economy has been faced the problem of excessive dependence on foreign demand, investment, and shortage of consumption. With the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the export has greatly reduced because of overseas markets shrinking and investment scale down. More and more people doubt the idea that rely on investment to promote economic sustainably growth, investment promotes economic growth has been close to the top, and excessive investment will also lead to a series of serious economic consequences. Consumption has been the key factor to the development of economic sustainably, but also the weak link of the economic growth in China. The development of Chinese economy confronted the problem the transition from foreign demand to domestic demand, from investment to consumption.Consumer finance can increase the consumption demand by two ways:First, consumer finance can increase the consumer credit loans. Secondly, consumer finance can improve economic efficiency to expand consumer demand. But there are some problems:future development tendency of consumer financial market; the development innovation tendency of consumer financial product and how to maximum improve consumer finance contribution to the economic growth in China. Base on these questions, this paper use the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, static analysis and the dynamic analysis research methods. It is pointed out that at present consumption financial market development deficiency through comparing the United States and the Japanese consumer financial market development survey. The article uses cross time consumption theory and ordinal number of utility, and in combination with the current economic situation to analysis whether consumers choose consumer financial products. The paper also uses JJ cointegration test and vector error correction model to solve the contribution of the short-term financial products and long-term financial products to the economic development.The article is different with previous researches on economic growth of the consumer financial contribution. It uses consumer credit as consumer finance measure, which divided into the short-term credit and long-term consumer credit, and uses JJ cointegration test and vector error correction model to discuss the contribution of short-term credit and long-term consumer credit to economic growth, and predict the short term credit, long-term consumer credit, GDP three time series by the variance decomposition and impulse response function. These methods come from the software Eviews6.0.The conclusion:The short-term credit, long-term consumer credit, GDP three time series have long-term equilibrium relationship, and the contribution of the short-term credit to GDP growth is more than long-term consumption credit, which shows that the role of the short-term financial products to promote our country economy development is more important than long-term consumption credit. The conclusion of this paper has important guiding significance to our consumption financial markets tendency and consumer finance product innovation.