Sales Price Index Forecast Of Real Estate In China Based On Time Series

In recent years, many of our large cities real estate prices continued rapid growth, making the price of real estate sales, rental price and the income level of residents in an imbalance. Rebound of the real estate industry, making the re-emergence of the real estate bubble, real estate prices have become in our current society is an important topic, continued soaring real estate prices has become a problem in our government need to be resolved. Our government has taken a series of control to suppress the growth of house prices, although in some cities, prices rarely come down, but on the whole, China’s real estate prices still in the high state, and that part of the city’s housing the price there is still an upward trend. The real estate prices are still our government, businesses, researchers focus on the topic, research real estate prices in the law of development has an important role in solving China’s real estate bubble.In this paper, time series for a major research tool, Introduce the meaning and characteristics of the real estate prices, Factors that affect real estate prices in China were analyzed from different aspects. The article focuses on the sum of the calendar year real estate sales price index data for statistical analysis using time series of real estate sales price index autoregressive integrated moving average time to model and predict. The main contents include:The first chapter of the introduction to introduce the background, meaning and purpose, domestic and international research status; theoretical analysis of the second chapter of real estate prices, given the definition of real estate prices and to analyze the factors that affect real estate prices;chapters through the basic theory of time series, given the sum autoregressive moving average time series modeling process; The fourth chapter is the central part of the article, th establish the autoregressive integrated moving average time series models abut China’s real estate sales,then forecast.China’s real estate sales price index.The laset chapter, combined with analysis of future development trends and the current development of China’s real estate, a few personal recommendations put forward points of policy measures on the regulation of real estate prices in China.