Empirical Study On Nonlinear Doubly Time Series Evaluation Model For Real Estate

Zhang Suodi put forth the nonlinear doubly time series evaluation model for real estate returns in 1998, which estimation of parameters and forecasting are both excellent, but there is no empirical study. With the support of National Natural Science Fundation of Shanxi Province project "research on nonlinear doubly stochastic forecasting system for the value and returns of real estate" which is headed by Zhang Suodi, this dissertation makes a practical application research on nonlinear doubly time series evaluation model for real estate in Shanghai and Shenzhen's real estate stock market. The main work is as follows:1.Empirical analysis of the doubly time series evaluation model for real estate returns The dissertation analyzes the operating process of nonlinear doubly time series model for evaluation real estate returns, designs the code to assess returns, evaluates stock returns of 53 listed companies in real estate industry in Shanghai and Shenzhen's stock market. Returns evaluation can guide the listed companies in real estate industry to take proper management strategies, and promote an orderly development of the whole industry.2.Empirical analysis of the doubly time series model for real estate price forecastingThis dissertation gives one step and multi-step predictive formula of nonlinear doubly time series model, analyzes the operating process of real estate price forecasting, and studies on 53 listed companies in real estate industry in Shanghai and Shenzhen's stock market. Forecasting the trend of real estate price can support management and investment decisions.3.Putting forth of the conception of applying doubly time series model to real estate early warning systemApplying nonlinear doubly time series model to real estate early warning system can upgrade the function of the warning system, and promote a healthy development of the real estate market.