Study On Fruit Price Fluctuation And Its Influence On Fruit Farmers' Production Decision In Fujian Province

The price of Fujian fruit market is not stable.In 2015,due to the harvest of northern fruits,the price of fruits in Fuzhou fell sharply.For example,the price of honey pomelo fell by 26.9%after October,and the average wholesale price of bananas was only 2.4 yuan/kg,down year-on-year.41.5%.Fruit price fluctuations are closely related to fruit production behaviors.Under market economy conditions,fruit farmers are increasingly relying on fruit market prices to adopt corresponding production decision-making behaviors.In theory,fruit price fluctuations will be transmitted at the end of the industrial chain,and from the consumption end to the production end,farmers will adjust their production decisions according to changes in prices.However,in reality,if the farmer cannot make a correct production decision based on the price information,it is prone to abnormal changes in the supply volume,resulting in abnormal fluctuations in the fruit price market.Therefore,it is necessary to explore the characteristics of fruit price fluctuations and the production decision-making behavior of fruit farmers,analyze the law of fruit price fluctuations and influencing factors,and study the relationship between fruit farmers' production decisions and fruit price fluctuations to alleviate the current fluctuations in fruit prices in Fujian Province.It is of great significance to guide the production practices of fruit farmers.This article is selected from the fruits of Fujian Province as the research object.The fruit production price index and the fruit consumer price index are selected as the indicators to explore the price fluctuation characteristics.On this basis,choose the banana representative with 1 year old and high degree of marketization,and go to the main banana production in Fujian Province.District Chenzhou conducted on-the-spot investigations to explore the relationship between farmers'production decision-making behavior and fruit price volatility.The research ideas are as follows:First,the definition of relevant concepts in this paper is defined,based on the theory of price conduction and the theory of farmer production decision-making behavior,etc.Secondly,the macroscopic data is used to analyze the fluctuation characteristics of fruit prices in Fujian Province,and the analysis of HP filtering method is used.The trend characteristics and periodic characteristics of the people use the impulse response function to explore the transmission of price fluctuations in the fruit industry chain.Thirdly,the characteristics of farmers' production behaviors are analyzed,and the factors affecting the decision-making behavior of farmers' production behaviors are clarified.The influence of price factors on farmers' production decision-making behaviors;fourthly,the main conclusions are summarized according to the previous research,and feasible countermeasures are proposed.Main conclusions:First,the fruit price of Fujian Province has cyclical fluctuations.It is found through analysis that the fluctuation cycle of fruit production price and fruit consumption price is very similar,the fluctuation characteristics are similar,and the change trend is close,and it is considered that there is "the same as above".Volatility characteristics.Under the premise of confirming that the linear organization relationship between fruit production price and consumption is stable through cointegration analysis,the impulse response function is used to explore the transmission of fruit prices between the industrial chains.The results show that the price of fruit in the industrial chain is there.The change of fruit production price will affect the price of fruit consumption.This effect will continue.The price of fruit consumption also affects the price of fruit production,but the reaction of fruit production price.More lagging.Second,the decision-making behavior of fruit farmers has the characteristics of irrationality,uncertainty,large amount of labor input and fruit sales.Production decision-making behavior follows the principle of maximizing profit and long-term decision-making.The response of fruit farmers to market information is through media.The results show that last year's fruit purchase price,planting capital investment,the number of trainings received,and the importance of price information have a significant impact on the decision-making behavior of fruit farmers.The theoretical analysis and research hypothesis of this paper are verified.For every 1%increase in price,the fruit farmers will expand.The banana production area is 0.24%.