| ’Establishing a big food concept’ has been mentioned many times in the No.1Document of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in 2023.The ’ big food concept ’ requires a comprehensive and systematic guarantee of food supply such as grain,vegetables,fruits,meat and aquatic products.In recent years,China ’s total fishery output value has achieved stable and sustainable growth.In 2021,China ’s total fishery output value has reached 2969 billion yuan,and the total amount of fishery import and export has reached 18 billion dollars.It can be seen that adequate supply of aquatic products is one of the important measures to ensure China ’s food security.Specifically,aquatic products are one of the most important agricultural products.It has become one of the indispensable important proteins for urban and rural residents,and its share on the table of residents has increased year by year.However,due to the impact of public emergencies(such as COVID-19)and natural climate,the price of aquatic products in China fluctuates more frequently.In addition,the price of aquatic products has a steady upward trend in the long run.This is not conducive to farmers according to the price of the signal to organize the next year ’s production,at the same time,the final consumer also lost a certain degree of welfare level.However,the existing research rarely involves the in-depth discussion of the price fluctuation and conduction of bulk freshwater fish.Therefore,this paper selects the price of bulk freshwater fish as the research object,in order to clarify the basic law of price fluctuation and conduction of fish products,which has certain theoretical and practical significance.The main research content is divided into two parts: First,this paper discusses the characteristics of aquatic product price fluctuation,specifically,including explicit characteristics(seasonality,etc.)and implicit characteristics(risk and return uncertainty,asymmetry,agglomeration),in order to provide some reference for farmers to grasp the general law of aquatic product price fluctuation.Secondly,this paper uses NARDL model to analyze the asymmetric effect of price transmission of aquatic products from wholesale to retail in China.This paper analyzes the reasons from the perspective of market power difference,that is,using EGARCH model to qualitatively describe the difference of market power between wholesalers and retailers of aquatic products.The results show that: First,the prices of grass carp,crucian carp,silver carp and carp have obvious seasonal fluctuations.Specifically,the highest price level of four freshwater fish is around June every year,and the lowest price level of four freshwater fish is around December every year.Secondly,the price fluctuations of the four freshwater fish have significant agglomeration characteristics.The current price fluctuation of freshwater fish is not only affected by the previous external information shock,but also by the conditional variance of the previous residual term.The estimated results of the risk reward coefficient of grass carp,silver carp and carp are not significant,which means that the relationship between the risk of price fluctuation of these three freshwater fish and the expected return is not clear,and the fluctuation characteristics of high return and high risk do not exist.The estimated results of the risk reward coefficient of crucian carp are significant,which means that the price fluctuation of crucian carp has the characteristics of high return and high risk.The asymmetric effect widely exists in the price fluctuations of grass carp,crucian carp,silver carp and carp.The response of the four fish price fluctuations to good news(price increase)is far greater than that to bad news(price decline).Third,whether in the long-term or short-term,the transmission effect of carp wholesale price rise is stronger than that of its price decline.Specifically,the transmission of carp wholesale to retail price has an asymmetric effect of transmission degree and transmission speed.The response of carp wholesale price fluctuation and retail price fluctuation to good news and bad news is not consistent.The response of carp wholesale price fluctuation to good news(price rise)is greater,while the response of carp retail price fluctuation to bad news(price decline)is greater,which means that carp wholesalers have stronger market bargaining power.Based on the above research,the policy recommendations proposed in this paper are:(1)Strengthen the supervision of the wholesale market of aquatic products and strengthen the organization of producers.The government should improve the supervision system of the aquatic product market,especially strengthen the supervision of the wholesale market of aquatic products,such as setting the wholesale maximum price.Through the establishment of production cooperatives and other measures to link fishermen,enhance the bargaining power of fishermen in market competition.(2)Establish aquatic product price publicity platform to correctly guide production and consumption.When the price of aquatic products fluctuates greatly,the relevant departments timely publish the price data,and the fishermen reasonably arrange the production input of the next production cycle according to the signal transmission of the price.(3)Improve the construction of aquatic products circulation mechanism and develop aquatic products processing industry.The government should encourage and guide fishermen to make full use of the power of e-commerce platforms and take advantage of the development advantages of China ’s cold chain logistics industry to achieve the docking of production and marketing between fishermen and final consumers.(4)Adjust the target of agricultural policy and implement the fishery policy.The target of agricultural policy should be more diversified,for example,to strengthen the ultimate effect of the policy by weakening the market power of intermediaries,or to compensate for the welfare level lost by consumers by setting consumer prices for aquatic products. |
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