The Analysis On The Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate’s Appreciation To Shandong’s International Trade Of Agricultural Products

In the past few years,RMB exchange rate appreciation has become a hot topic at home and abroad, especially after the financial crisis, the appreciation of RMB has been an important factor which cannot be ignored in foreign trade. On July21,2005, the people’s bank of China declared that our country begins to execute a kind of managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand,"with reference to a currency basket. The exchange rate of the yuan will no longer be pegged to the dollar, forming a more flexible RMB exchange rate mechanism.At the same time,the yuan against the us dollar rose by two percent,the transaction price achieving8.11yuan for1dollar. Appreciation process of RMB started.Since the exchange rate reform in2005, the exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar has continued to climb, breaking through8and running to "six times".Yet, as the dollar depreciate significantly,considering the comprehensive international and domestic reasons, many scholars believe that the yuan is still under great pressure of appreciation.The appreciation of RMB has become an inevitable trend.By2011, RMB exchange rate has reached6.3yuan for1dollar.The appreciation of the renminbi has different effects in different industries in China. Import and export of agricultural products is an important traditional industry of China,which has a close connection with people’s life.As a big agricultural province,Shandong province plays a crucial role in China’s export of agricultural products.Also,agricultural products export trade is very important forShandong to create more jobs, improve people’s life and realize sustainable development.So,studying the inner relationship between RMB appreciation and agricultural products import and export is meaningful to exporting agricultural products for more foreign exchange and formulating trade policies.Classic literature about the appreciation of the RMB mainly focuses on the following two aspects:one is whether the exchange of RMB should appreciate or not; the other one is various impact of RMB appreciation.The second aspect,from macroscopic perspective mainly concentrates one the economic production, the total amount of import and export trade, trade structure and employment,an so on.As for the impact of RMB appreciation to a specific industry, especially to provincial agricultural product export,relative study is deficient. Based on the background that agricultural exports of Shandong province has a special position in China, this paper,combining theoretical and empirical analysis methods,studies the relationship between RMB appreciation and exports and imports of agricultural products in Shandong province.