Research On Risk Analyze And Assessment In Vender Selection In The Ship-building Industry

The paper put the application of a risk management method widely used in finance into the supplier selection problem in supply chain management, in the hope of discovering an advanced, practical and theoretical support for the scientific enterprise decision-making process in the future. In reality, large-scale shipbuilding enterprises has a working management system, re-designing it for the supplier selection management system is unrealistic, so the paper has a value of fitting the new risk management requirements into the existing management system by improving the original vendor selection model.The paper introduced the problem on the basis of the background analyzing from the literature and theory review. Then the paper analyzed the characteristics and problems of the shipbuilding supplier selection, to identify the risk factors faced by the process. In order to facilitate the subsequent measurement of risk, the article divided these risks into the risk of cost loss and the risk of production disruptions according to consider different standards under the risk classification. Later on, the paper proposed a risk measuring methods, and used it in the empirical description. Meanwhile, the paper built the analytic hierarchy process model of supplier selection and evaluation and selected a material supplier selection example to run the model. In order to reflect the effect risk factors have on decision-making in vendor selection, the paper added a risk influencing factor to the former AHP model. By using the foregoing risk measuring method, the paper determined the risk-adjusted weight, re-evaluate the previous suppliers and get the contrast conclusions. Finally, there are some risk management steps to be taken in the shipbuilding enterprise vendor selection process.The main innovation in this paper is that it divided the risks into two categories: the risk of cost loss and the risk of production disruptions, so that it serves the purpose of risk measurement properly. Also, the paper followed the idea of value at risk to apply a widely used risk measuring method in the vendor selection process, providing an easy to calculate and manage quantitative criterion of certain distinction between the different suppliers.Through empirical research and a numerical example, the proposed risk measurement methods, combining with the hierarchical model of supplier selection and evaluation worked well in the vendor selection of a certain item. The results showed that adding the risk factors can affect the final selection and as a result, enterprises should consider the risk factors in the process of vendor selection.