Individual Differences And The Influence Of Cognitive Bias Of Newsboy Order Decision Research

The exsiting studies about newsbendor problem ralely or never consider the individual heterogeneity, but in many other disciplines such as cognitive psychology and consumer behavior analysis, both emphasized the importance of individual heterogeneity on the decision-making. In the field of supply chain, many researchers have pointed that it needs to incorporate the individual cognitive limitations and individual differences in newsvendor problem research. Many studies about cognitive biases in cognitive psychology, behavioral economics and experimental economics have shown that cognitive biases have individual difference. So it needs to make systematic studies of newsvendor problem from the perspective of individual differences and cognitive biases. Based on the relevant studies, a concept model considering the effect of individual differences and cognitive biases on newsvendor ordering decision is established, research hypotheses are proposed, and the different learning behavior caused by different individual differences under different feedback information is also studied.Individual cognitive ability, emotional intelligence, heuristics and risk preference can be measured by the scale, further analysis of decision-makers’ ordering decision and learning behavior with different individual differences was also made through the manipulation of different feedback information in newsvendor order experiment, and hypothesis is also tested. Main conclusions are summarized as follows:1. Gender factors have no significant effect on decision makers’ ordering decision; major factors have significant effect on decision makers’ordering decision, decision makers who have learned operations research and have relevant newsvendor problem experience perform better; decision makers’order quantity is positive correlated to cognitive ability; and there is no significant correlation between order quantity and emotional intelligence. When feedback information is different, the effect degree of individual cognitive biases on newsvendor ordering decision is different ender different profit product, and the impact factors is also different. 2. The average order quantity when the feedback information is sales is lower than that when the feedback information is demand; for the low-profit products, the newsvendor’s order quantity is closer to the optimal quantity, while for high-profit products, the newsvendor’s order deviates from the optimal quantity much farther. The standard deviation of data when the feedback information is sales is lower than that when the feedback information is demand, showing that the volatility is less significant when the feedback information is sales.3. The results of subjects’learning behavior over time have shown that:whether the feedback information is sales or demand, subjects both come from major1and major2showed significant learning behavior in direction of optimal quantity over time in high profit condition; and subjects come from major1also showed learning behavior in direction of optimal quantity over time in low profit condition. When the feedback information is sales, subjects from major1showed significant adjustment learning behavior over tome in low profit condition; subjects come from major2showed adjustment learning behavior over time in high condition. Other groups didn’t show any learning behavior. The adjustment learning means the order quantity tend to decrease from period to period, due to the effect of demand chasing and availability heuristics, the adjustment learning didn’t significant over time.4. The results of correlation between subjects’learning behavior in direction of optimal quantity and individual differences have shown that: Whether the feedback information is sales or demand, learning behavior in direction of optimal quantity of subjects come from major2have shown significant gender difference in low and high profit condition; when the feedback information is sales, learning behavior in direction of optimal quantity of subjects come from major1have shown significant gender difference in high profit condition. Whether the feedback information is sales or demand, in high profit condition, subjects comes from major1and major2have shown significant correlation between emotional intelligence and learning behavior in direction of optimal quantity. Whether the feedback information is sales or demand, in high profit condition, subjects come from major2have shown significant correlation between cognitive ability and adjustment learning behavior.5. The results of correlation between subjects’adjustment learning behavior and individual differences have shown that:Whether the feedback information is sales or demand, adjustment learning behavior of subjects come from major1have shown significant gender difference in low profit condition; whether the feedback information is sales or demand, adjustment learning behavior of subjects come from major2have shown significant gender difference in high profit condition. When the feedback information is sales, in low profit condition, subjects come from major1have shown significant correlation between emotional intelligence and adjustment learning behavior. Whether the feedback information is sales or demand, in high profit condition, subjects come from major2have shown significant correlation between cognitive ability and adjustment learning behavior.