The Research On Influence Of International Business Cycle Lfuctuations To China’s Export

As the special economy style in China, economic growth and employmentstability largely depend on export trade. With the continuous deepened of economicglobalization, the relationships among countries become closer, therefore, theinfluence of business cycle fluctuations in any country to others becomes wider anddeeper. In recent years, with international business cycle fluctuations in the low ebbs,China’s export trade has confronted even more severe challenges than ever before.The2008subprime mortgage crisis made most countries fall into great trouble, and italso had exerted a great impact to China’s exports. In2009, China’s exports fell down16%over the previous year. Recent economic data shows that there would be a secondbottom of the global economy; therefore, it is a very important and worthy to studyhow to reduce the impact on China’s exports of the international economy downturnagain.Based on the summary of literatures, the writer has done the following things.Firstly, addresses the current situation of the international business cycle fluctuationsand China’s exports according to the theory, and estimates the relevance between theinternational business cycle fluctuations and the fluctuations of China’s exports, andthe results show that both of them have a strong correlation. Secondly, the thesisteases out the transmission effect of the international business cycle fluctuationsimpact on China’s export trade, including revenue effect, exchange rate effect,international price effect. Finally, combined with China’s macroeconomic quarterlymodel (China QEM), build both vector auto regression model and panel data model,respectively measure the different effects of various conduction effects fromlongitudinal angle and the various effects on China exports of different types ofnational business cycles fluctuations from horizontal angle.Longitudinal analysis shows that foreign income, exchange rates, the relativeprice of exports and China’s imports have long-term stable relationship with China’sexport; and horizontal analysis shows that the exchange rate effect exerts the greatestimpact on China’s exports for the developed countries group and the EU group, whilethe income effect plays the most important role in the impact on China’s exports forthe developing countries group. These conclusions not only provide evidences for themechanism analysis, but also for the development of China’s future export policy.