Research On International Trade Transmission Mechanism Of Business Cycle Between China, Japan And Korea

As the economic globalization and regional integration develop fast, researches on economiccycle gradually turn to an open type from an independent research on a country singly. In the openeconomy, one country can send its own economic fluctuation to other countries of the rest worldthrough trade and financial channels, in reverse, the economy of the same country will be affectedseriously by other countries in the same way. This interaction makes the internal business cyclesynchronization gradually increased. So it becomes a topic of great worth to explore the economiccycle mechanism of international trade.This article gives further study on the open trade transmission mechanism of the economiccycle of Japan and South Korea. Then we use the moment analysis method to analysis thecharacters of the economic cycle in China, Japan and South Korea, compare the sustainability andco-three aspects of mobility fluctuation characteristics. We use the three countries as the researchobjects, then we establish a FR model through OLS and3SLS empirical studies the impacts oftrade intensity, export structure, intra-industry trade, industrial structure on the economic cyclesynchronization, and explore the key factor which mostly impact the economic cyclesynchronization between China, Japan and South Korea under the strengthening trend of economicintegration in Northeast Asia. Therefore, to explore the transmission mechanism of economiccycle, know the rule, expect economic fluctuation, and effectively avoid the economic fluctuationfrom the international market and other country to Chinese economic. Based on theseresearches, the paper draws the following conclusions:(1)Bilateral trade intensity has a positive effect for Japan and South Korea business cycleco-movement, but the influence of Sino-South Korea is in the opposite direction.(2) In the specialization index of the business cycle co-movement, the industry similarity hasthe minimum affection on the business cycle co-movement, the effect of specialization indexesbased on foreign trade are greater than the indexes based on industrial structure.(3) The influence on business cycle co-movement, Japan-South Korea industry similarity isgreater than Sino-Japan or Sino-Korea. The reason is that secondary industry similarity betweenJapan and South Korea is high.At last, based on the analysis of these conclusions, this paper draws that China should graspthe economic fluctuation rule, maintain moderate growth of trade, trade in the direction ofdiversification, expand domestic demand, adjust the industrial structure.