Based On Gray - Multiple Regression Model Of Construction Land Demand Prediction Research

Since the twenty-first Century, land demand accelerates substantially with theincrease of population, the rapid development of society and economy. Under theguidance of balancing urban and rural development, the process of urbanizationspeeding up, rural villages and towns developing rapidly, the integration of urbanand rural villages and towns being increasingly mature, the demand for constructionland increasing, results in the serious imbalance between total supply of constructionland and its total demand. Therefore, it’s effective to study and strengthen theforecast of demand on construction land, making sure the planning of constructionsites is scientific and reasonable, preventing other land from being occupied. WithScientific prediction of construction land demand in advance and planning the use ofconstruction land according to the prediction reasonably, It has great significance tothe management of construction land, as well as improving the utilization rate andthe land intensive degree.This paper takes the demand of construction land as pilot prediction objectaccording to12th Five-Year Plan of Kunming city. After introducing the researchbackground,significances and purposes, reviewing the prediction situation ofconstruction land demand at home and abroad, explaining some construction landrelated concepts and elaborating prediction theory on construction land demand, thispaper analyzes status quo of land utilization and dynamic change of constructionland of Kunming city according to the2001-2009data of economic and socialdevelopment and the latest regulated statistics of land use of Kunming city,predicting the construction land demand of2011-2015on the basis of Grey MultipleRegression model.The research findings are as follows:1. Nine social,environmental and economic factors,which are screened by relevant analysis andGrey Relational Analysis, are tentatively chosen basing the reliance principle ofprediction statistics of construction land demand in Kunming City.2. Six main factors affecting the construction land demand in Kunming City are the overallpopulation,the afforestation rate, urban green space area, per capital GDP, GDPproportion of the first industry, GDP proportion of the second and third industry.3.Screened main factors are used to construct regression prediction Model, therefore,regression Model between the construction land and per capital GDP is formed.4. The GM (1,1) model is used to test one of the factors,the per capital GDP, andthereafter the2011-2015predictive value of the per capita GDP is put into the linearregression models, obtaining the prediction of construction land demand in Kunmingcity from2011to2015. Through empirical research, up to the late "TwelfthFive-Year Plan " period, the demand of construction land in Kunming city is171800hectares, which is in consistent with the requirements planning the overallconstruction land use. Finally, the author gives some relevant advice on managementof construction land in Kunming city from the perspectives of actual situation ofKunming city and sustainable development strategy.