| Since personal housing was commercialized, personal housing market has developed very quickly. At the same time, the scale of personal housing mortgage loan expanded rapidly. The business of personal housing mortgage loan has become a major component of commercial banks’ retail business and a new profit point in recent years. As the commercial banks’ personal housing mortgage loan business risk management and prevention system is not sound, and the risk assessment mechanism is absent, risks of the personal housing mortgage loan gather with the expanding scale. Once the risks explosion, they will bring huge shock to the whole financial system and great impact on world’s economy. From the view of the real estate market’s development trend and the objective requirements of commercial banks’ risk prevention, it is imperative to enhance the risk management of personal housing mortgage loan, and strengthen the financial system security and stability.The paper first reviews the results of personal housing mortgage loan risk theory research by experts and scholars.Then the paper decribes the characteristics of personal housing mortgage loan,analyzes the main risks of personal housing mortgage loan in our country, including credit risk, prepayment risk, operational risk, fluidity risk and interest rate risk, etc, and their cause. After analyzing the development of the real estate market and personal housing mortgage loan in detail, the paper takes one commercial bank in Changzhou as an example and collects268sets of personal housing mortgage loaners’ characteristic, use Logistic Model to analyze the default factors of personal housing mortgage loan, emphasizing on the factors which bring risks to personal housing mortgage loan. In the end, we give some advice to improve the personal housing mortgage loan risk prevention system on foundation of the text. There’s need of strengthening the borrowers for review,determining the custome reasonably, strengthening the credit risk monitoring. |
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