An Empirical Analysis Of Personal Housing Mortgage Loan Credit Risk Factors Of Dalian

Real estate has been the pillar industry of China's sustained economic, and personal housing mortgage loan is essential to real estate industry as an important financial support, the individual housing mortgage loans have always been considered as high-quality loans, but Before the outbreak of the United States subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, personal housing mortgage loans was considered high-quality loans as well, until the outbreak of the US subprime crisis, the default risk gradually exposed, and it imposed a huge impact on the U.S. Real estate and finance industry, the reason is that the low interest rates of U.S. government and the financial institutions policy of U.S. and the loose credit conditions. At present, financial institutions lending conditions of China are very loose and the real estate is collateral, the law is not completed well, the rising of the consumer price index and producer price index, coupled with inadequate personal credit information system all these factors have increased the level of individual mortgage default risk. The length of real estate loans can reach 30 years, and in most cases the risk is usually emerging gradually 3-8 years after the loan is made, so the banks need to strengthen awareness of the control of the personal housing mortgage loan default risk and guard against it. This paper use discriminate analysis(This empirical study uses 490 samples of actual mortgage loan data of a commercial bank in Dalian city which include 247 samples of normal status and 243 samples of default status) to the data of a bank in Dalian personal housing mortgage loan and also compare the data before and after the financial crisis in 2007, and then get the main factors which can affect the default rate of individual mortgage loans and provide some advices based on individual housing mortgage defaults analysis, in order to ensure the stable operation of real estate and banking.This article analyze the impact of mortgage default risk factors in Dalian City, from macro and micro perspective , from a macro perspective, the main factors are: analysis of the real estate cycle, economic policy and of inflation in Dalian City ;from microscopic point of view, the main use of discriminant analysis before and after the subprime crisis, based on a commercial bank's personal housing mortgage loan default data in Dalian City ,to study the whether U.S. subprime mortgage crisis will impact on Dalian personal housing mortgage loan default risk? influence how ?Taking into account if use the data in 2007 alone, it will ignore the financial crisis and other factors lag, reducing the accuracy of the analysis, this paper use the data of Dalian before and after the subprime crisis to do a comparative analysis(before the crisis:343;after the crisis:147), which is also the main innovation of this article. The results show that after the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, the factor of career in Dalian City real estate cycle began to significantly influence the personal housing mortgage defaults risk, some professional groups weakened the stability of the default risk of gradually revealed. The factors in both comparative analysis of the real estate cycle to draw conclusions: the benchmark interest rate, and monthly payments accounted for the monthly income and the price per unit area are significant factors of personal housing mortgage loan delinquencies, indicating that the government should adjust interest rates as a means of control, and the price per unit area of the house on the default rate cannot be ignored.