| In the background of the country economy in transition while vigorously guiding the development of capital market, raising the direct financing proportion, and declining indirect financing in the proportion of leverage, the retail credit in the bank’s credit business accounting will further increase, and the personal housing mortgage loans are the bulk of the traditional bank credit business. How to enhance economic capital return rate while managing and controlling the loan risk to boost the development of the personal housing mortgage loans and to maximize the social welfare is the focus of concern in the financial industry. A lot of previous research on risk factors of the domestic housing mortgage loans concentrated generally in 2009 and 2010, when the United States subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2008. These researches existed some limitation not only because the country was then in the regulation during steering, and also because the basic asset prices were still rose with the policy lag effect and hidden the risk. The country re-launched macro-control in 2010 and the effects appeared at the beginning of 2012. Along with the adverse macroeconomic effects including housing prices falling, GDP decline, and interest rate rising, bad loans began to rise and the risk started to expose until 2015 with some recovery of real estate. The paper focuses the research on the personal housing mortgage loan default risk factors based on the background of the real estate experienced a relatively complete cycle of high-speed development, adjustment, abyss, and recovery. The research tries to re-identify the main default risk factors of the personal housing mortgage loans in different regions in our country, so that more complete data and more reliable conclusion will be derived to provide a foundation for the quantitative research of credit risk, especially for research of default risk of the personal housing mortgage loans.First,The empirical research model and variable selection of the paper are determined according to the revelatory and instructive conclusions of the theories and quantitative research achievements of many domestic and foreign scholars. Seconde,198 normal loan samples and 156 default loan samples include Hangzhou and Wenzhou selected from a state-owned bank credit management system are covered in this research;, the sample data analyzed through the factor analysis, discriminant analysis, and cluster analysis of SPSS Version 19 statistical software draw the following conclusions:1. The characteristics of economic development in different regions determine the different influence degree of the macroeconomic factors on the default personal housing mortgage loans. Wenzhou area is sensitive to all the 5 macroeconomic factors of GDP, CPI, ups and downs of housing price, resident income and expenditure,while Hangzhou area is sensitive to the 2 macroeconomic factors of resident income and expenditure. Compared to Hangzhou’s diversified economy type, Wenzhou as an export-oriented economy type is more sensitive to fluctuations of the GDP and CPI variables. Wenzhou is more sensitive to fluctuations of housing prices than Hangzhou, and there is probably real estate bubble in Wenzhou area and possibility of rational default loans. The paper demonstrates the influence degree of macroeconomic factors on default of personal housing mortgage loans in different regions, so making up for the lack of empirical research in this field and providing an important basis for the implementation of differentiated credit policy in different regions.2. The paper has finished fast clustering analysis according to sample similarity, dividing the debtors in Hangzhou and Wenzhou area into three categories. The further study shows that in Hangzhou area the high risk group is the high-income individual business bosses while the medium risk group is the highly educated young single homebuyers. Among these people, the high-income individual business bosses have the highest default risk, especially under the background of economic downturn. For the highly educated young single buyers, income and expenditure ratio is the main factor of default loans, being the major due diligence content of the current domestic commercial banks. Wenzhou homebuyers represent the individual businesses boss and high-income buyers group. Among these purchasers, the individual businesses boss groups both in Wenzhou and in Hangzhou have basically similar default influence factors. GDP is a key default factor for these groups. Wenzhou high income housing buyers are the moderate risk group, but the key default factors of this group in macro level is the year-on-year house price growth range. These buyers have the tendency to purchase house for investment, and become an important object in the current bank risk control.3. Independent sample comparison of mean T-calibration is applied for Hangzhou area, and shows that the key default risk factors affecting high-income individual business owner group can be listed in order of importance as year-on-year expenditure growth, year-on-year revenue growth, year-on-year GDP growth, year-on-year CPI growth, and job post. Macroeconomic factors have more impact on the defaults for this group. The key default risk factors affecting highly educated young single homebuyers group can be listed in order of importance as income and expenditure ratio, year-on-year income growth, loan age, and every-month repayment. Income and expenditure ratio of microeconomic factors has more impact on the defaults for this group. Independent sample comparison of mean T-calibration is also applied for Wenzhou area, and shows that the key default risk factors affecting Wenzhou individual business boss buyer group can be listed in order of importance as year-on-year GDP growth. Macroeconomic factors are the key factors of the defaults for this group which is basically similar as the default factors of Hangzhou high-income individual business owner group. The key default risk factors affecting Wenzhou high-income homebuyers can be listed in order of importance as job post, total amount of loan, year-on-year housing price growth, house total price, institution property, income and expenditure ratio, remote house purchasing, initial payment amount, every-month repayment, personal annual income, house area, and year-on-year income growth. Both micro and macro factors have significant impact on the defaults of this group, especially the year-on-year house price growth range comprises the key default factor in macro level of this group who has the tendency to purchase house for investment. The above research results provide empirical evidence for the risk management of personal housing mortgage loans. |
PDF Full Text Request