Practical Study On The Gray System Theory In The Forecast Of Oil And Gas Exploration Costs

Oil and gas resources are one of the world’s major energy. Accelerating the development of oil and gas can better promote economic development. With the three Chinese National Oil Majors companies listed, facing competition in capital and products’market, cost of oil and gas is a key to affect the company’s core competitiveness. Through long-term construction and development, the major oil companies have gradually entered a mid and late stage. And along with the rise in water rates, the cost pressures have also continued to increase. Therefore, in order to control the cost of oil and gas effectively, the forecast must be made in its previous. So the enterprises enable to control the cost effectively in the changing environmental circumstances. Grey system theory which requires data for its small and easy operation have been widely used.On the basis of the gray system theory and combined with the actual situation of Changqing Oilfield Company, the thesis first carries on the trends and structural analysis to the historical data of oil and gas exploration cost. The dissertation makes grey association analysis to the influence factors. The results show that the depreciation costs, other costs, power costs and the other four elements are closely connected with the oil and gas exploration cost. Then in order to analysis and comparison familiarly,regression analysis、the traditional GM (1,1) model and the improved GM (1,1) model are used to prognosticate oil and gas exploration costs. Forecast results show that the optimized GM (1,1) model enhances the forecast precision, and can be used for long-term forecasting activities. Finally, cost-effective control measures and recommendations are proposed according to the results of cost analysis and forecasting.The innovation is mainly manifested in two ways:the application of the improved traditional GM (1,1) model in the cost of oil and gas exploration and the cost estimating description under this model; for The application of the gray system theory in the cost of oil and gas exploration, we propose the effective control measures and suggestions in the oil and gas exploration cost management.Through this thesis, it can provide a new awareness and a deeper understanding in the development trend and influencing factors of oil and gas exploration costs. In practice, this would contribute to oil companies to control the cost using the effective forecasting techniques with their own actual situation of the development period.