| Study on the effect of price fluctuation on consumption mainly involved in investment demand and consumption demand that the real estate market investment and residents consumption field, is related to housing and consumption is urgent needs to solve the problem. This paper is based on this background, a thorough study of the Hunan real estate prices fluctuate, consumer behavior is how to change, namely the Hunan real estate market whether to have the wealth effect.This paper establishes two models from a different point of view. The first model is in the life cycle hypothesis and permanent income hypothesis, the use of Hunan Province Changsha City14city state data panel modeling. Based on panel data of stationarity test, cointegration test, then the estimation of model coefficients, experienced in F test and Hausen test of fixed effects estimation of varying coefficient models are appropriate, the14city state to its residents housing consumption influence is different. Economy developeds, dweller income high area such as city of Changsha, rising house prices to increase dweller in non durable consumer spending; and undeveloped economy, the lower income areas such as Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture City, prices rise so that the residents consumption expenditure reduction. The second model is the use of real estate price index and consumption of urban residents of the province’s data is unstructured autoregressive vector modeling. Due to the adoption of the quarterly data, so before modeling seasonal adjustment, eliminate the seasonal factors. After the variable smoothness, cointegration tests were carried out, causal relationship. The test results show that the real estate price fluctuation is the residents consumption expenditure changes occurring in the Granger causal reasons. This again is to establish VAR model is stable, the right, after the pulse analysis showed, Hunan province and the real estate price changes of household consumption, stimulative effect is long-term. |
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