The Research On Financial Crisis Warning Of The Manufacturing Listed Company

As the global economy development, The manufacture plays a part to countries’economic more and more prominent, the development of the manufacture has become an important force in the development of the society. Global manufacture competes increasingly fierce, the risk of manufacture means that it will face many uncertain factors in the production and business activities, if enterprises can’t effectively avoid and prevent all kinds of risk factors, these factors will give manufacturing enterprises bring obstacles and difficulties in the production and business activities, and make them into financial crisis, even move towards bankruptcy. If we analyze scientifically the financial situation of the manufacturing enterprise in recent years, and make financial crisis warning effectively, once it is found some abnormal symptoms we should began to strain, then we can forecast and solve the companies’financial uncertain problems promptly, in order to ensure the manufacturing enterprises sustainably and rapidly and healthy development. Therefore, the financial crisis warning theory and practice has an important significance.Based upon having read a lot of domestic and foreign enterprise financial crisis warning related theory and research results, aim at current scientific research development direction, and combine with the financial crisis characteristics of the manufacturing listed enterprise, which has Hu and Shen two stock market about50house manufacturing listed enterprises’related data of financial report as research object, then select22indexes variables, use SPSS software to the independent sample t-test and the parameters significant inspection for related financial indicators, so that select18initial variable of financial crisis warning model, then take these indicators concentrate into5factors variables through the factor analysis, and analyze the5factors variables through logistic method, then build the financial crisis warning model, at last checkout the model effectively to the model.This paper includes the following five parts:The first part mainly contains the purpose and the meaning of this study, domestic and foreign literature review, research methods and research content.The second part mainly expounds the theory basis of the financial crisis research, including the basic concepts of financial crisis, the basic theory of the financial crisis warning, and this paper uses the warning methods.The third part selects the research sample, including the selection of company,the selection of the initial index, and screen the index, then make sure of the final financial index of model building.The fourth part, this part make the factor analysis of the final financial index, extract the using factor, and calculate the factor score function, use logistic method to set up the manufacturing listed company financial crisis warning model, and at last test the model test whether or not accuracy.The fifth part summarizes the article and put forward policy recommendations, and expounds the articles’ limitations.