| In2011, China’s dependence on foreign oil reached56.5%.At present, China’s crude oil production is facing a bottleneck of the production growth, most reservoirs in the so-called "oil production" and "secondary recovery" is still a lot of crude oil stranded in the ground, in order to continue the recovery of these remaining (or residual) of crude oil, it is necessary to use artificial injection of energy-based tertiary oil recovery (EOR) technology. In this paper, we introduce an overview of the concept of real options and real options types, combined with the tertiary oil recovery process and the characteristics of the EOR project, summed up the EOR project is a high-risk, high uncertainty of investment projects, the actual operating conditions and cash flow forecast with great uncertainty, the feasibility of investment in accordance with the traditional discounted cash flow method to assess the drawbacks and risks. Consider options characteristics, the use of real options on the EOR project economic evaluation is more scientific to the EOR project. The paper established a real options evaluation model for tertiary oil recovery projects, this model is based on the B-S differential equation, combined with the option features of the EOR project, this model is suitable for evaluating all types of technology of EOR projects. In the empirical research of the model for the evaluation carried out by Jilin Fuyu mine practice of tertiary oil recovery project. Studies have shown that the real options method for high-risk, high uncertainty of EOR projects to make more scientific and objective evaluation, real options valuation approach can provide a useful measure to this uncertainty project and help managers to make the right investment decisions. As a relatively new evaluation method, the real options method is not complete denial the traditional evaluation methods, but on the basis of inheriting the advantage of traditional evaluation methods and improve it. |
PDF Full Text Request