The Risk Of Commercial Bank Real Estate Mortgage Research Based On The Demand And Supply Model

In recent years, With the improvement of the level of per capita income, and the conceptof change of consumer of urban residents in China，Governments brought about thedevelopment of housing consumption and thus stimulate economic growth through the realestate credit policy，the real estate market continued to take the heat, and in some cities suchas Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, house prices continued rising. If the property continued toclimb in prices, the price plunge will be leaded, then it caused prices to crash and the realestate market turmoil, even inevitably undermining the healthy development of China’soverall economic.In order to study the mortgage assets of commercial banks in China, this article, on thebasis of the key factors,used multiple linear regression analysis to analyze the impact ofhouse prices and establish the supply and demand model, estimating the income elasticity ofdemand and price elasticity in the condition of simultaneous equations framework, the articleused the estimated proceeds of the short-term flexibility and long-term flexibility to analyzethe changes in the prices of China’s overall real estate. Then the further research of real estateprice movements of the part of the first-tier cities in China is conducted, and two parts of theanalysis results were compared and analyzed. Then, the article analyzed the impact of themortgage price risk on China’s commercial banks based on the perspective of the stress tests,assessed the loss of affordability that China’s commercial banks can accept in these extremelyadverse circumstances through Scenario design and analysis of different factors, and Judgedthe status of the mortgage assets in China. Finally the first chapters of analysis on the basis ofthe status quo, according to our country as well as in parts of the overall demand for realestate price, the article can put forward China’s commercial banks mortgage asset riskmanagement countermeasures.