Study On Price Of Real Estate In Beijing

Real estate industry acts a leading, supporting and basic role in national economy; its development has great affections on the development of cities and other industries, even leads to cyclical movements of economy. Over-investments in real estate and rapid increases in the price of realty during the last two years have aroused the attention of the whole society.The histric experience of developed countries had proved that,for example Japanese real estate bubbles froth and American loan crisis, excessively rises of real estate price in a short time would multiply the real estate froth, destroy financial system, even possibly bring economic depression for a long time.Continious rise of real estate also affects resident's purchasing power,if the housing question cannot be solved properly ,it would have extremely tremendous negative influence to the social stability.Grasp the influencing factor and the operating law of real estate price better, will help us control real estate price fluctuations by using macroeconomic means to accelerate the real estate market's stable, coordinated, the sustainable development.This article first theoretically analyzed the supplies and the demand factor of Beijing house price. The demand analysis the primary factor which including the purchase characteristics, the consumption level and so on; Supplies analysis including market supplies characteristic, supplies scale, supplies influencing factor and so on. Next, the author has designed the measurement model in view of Beijing housing price supply and demand influencing factor in theoretical analysis's foundation, and has carried on the real diagnosis examination.According to the domestic and foreign scholar's research results, the author have withdrawn primary factors influence housing price, the demand factor include the population quantity, the active staff annual mean amount of wages, the year deal area, the supply actor include the main cost, the housing completed residential areas and the development investment,the environmental condition factor include year average per person GDP, the average per person GDP rate of increment and three industrial proportions.On the foundation of price mechanism analysis, the author separately designs commodity housing price determine model based on demand, the supplies and under both of the synthesis factor, and proposes the model estimate and the inspection procedure.The real diagnosis result indicated that under the demand factor influence, the staff yearly average wages increases 100 Yuan, the commodity housing price will correspond grow 10.867 Yuan/m2; Population quantity increases 10,000 people every time, the commodity housing price grows 4.557 Yuan /m~2; The commodity housing year deal area increased 10,000 m~2 , the commodity housing price will correspond drop 5.045 Yuan /m~2. Obviously, although the commodity housing year deal area grew quickly,it still could not catch up with the rise of the rate of Beijing population, which caused the commodity housing price rose quicker, makes people feel that the wages increase scope always could not catch up with the rise scope of commodity housing price. The positive result of commodity housing price model under supplies influence indicated that the main cost increases 1 Yuan /m~2 cause the commodity housing price grow 1.147 Yuan/m~2; housing completed residential areas grows 10,000 m~2 cause the commodity housing price drop 4.629 Yuan/m~2; The investment in real estates grow 1 hundred million Yuan cause the commodity housing price drop 1.376 Yuan/m~2. The increase of completed residential areas and investment in real estates has suppressed the rise of commodity housing price. Because when supply and demand balanced, the completed residential areas increased (and becomes deal area) generally brought the receding of housing price. The positive rusult of synthesis factor model indicated that resident population quantity (ten thousand people), the active staff annual mean wages (hundred Yuan), the main cost (building cost, land price) (Yuan /m~2), the property development investment (hundred million Yuan), the average per person GDP rate of increment (%) and so on, cause the change of the commodity housing price a unit corresponds (Yuan /m~2) respectively as 8.932, 7.329, 10.951, - 9.353, 1.954 units. The result indicated that the demand's power of drawing to house price is bigger by far than the supplies'suppression to house price.As our country cancelled the material object house allocation in 1998, the real estate market development's history was relatively short, the marketability degree was quite low, therefore, the research regarding the real estate price distribution rule was very late.At present, fundamental research of this field is insufficient, the measure method related real estate price distribution rule even extremely rare.This article based on the research results of real estate price distribution rule overseas, established linear regression model of Beijing real estate market actual price, and carried on the quantification analysis and the computation regarding Beijing real estate market price distribution during one year. The findings discovered that Beijing real estate market's price has not been serious deviate, which is inconsistent with some scholars's viewpoint.The reason lies the urban value. Beijing's urban value is 0.510 in 2006, the third in the national 35 big cities row, the Olympic Games concept further pulls the rises of Beijing's urban value in 2007 and 2008, with the house price also rise. Therefore, the author thought that in recent years Beijing house price insanely rises with lots of reason, urban value is the main cause.On the base of above researches, the author has carried on the market investigation according to four quadrants and the sector divisions of Beijing housing estate, and analysis the real estate market trend. The investigation and study result discovered that in the house price distribution prespect, the loop line effection is obvious, house price decreases progressively gradually from the city center city along the loop line, manifests"the land rent effect";As for the whole, the imbalanced Beijing house price regional distribution comes from the imbalanced of the soil-rent value distribution,prescribed as"north and east higher,south and east lower"; Makes concrete to various regions, the house price is actually close with the tectonic plate characteristic,the school district phenomenon is especially obvious, the investment demand mainly distributes in the hot spot tectonic plate, but live demand generally to be located at the peripheral locality; In addition, compares with the cosmopolis, Beijing house price absolute value is low, but the housing pressure index is high.Although the deviation of price in Beijing's real estate is not very serious, but the American Subprime mortgage crisis has make the alarm for us. Therefore this article finally proposed the methods and policy measures how to guard against the housing price serious deviation, pointed out that the government should synthesize using finance, tax revenue methods and so on to regulates Beijing housing market to prevent to the deviation of price. This article findings have important meaning to promote Beijing real estate industry coordinated with social economy development, and maintain the healthy development of Beijing real estate market, also has some profits to other big or middle-sized cities.