Qingdao Port Development Strategy Study Based On Throughput Forecast And Analysis Of Capacity Adaptability

With the international trade becoming increasingly frequent, more and moreattention has been given to the port, because of its important role and prominentposition. In the beneficial context of our country decentralizing the managerial powersof ports to the local governments, major ports have started to escalate the constructionscale and have invested heavily in the construction of large-scale and specializeddeep-water berths in order to secure a favorable position in the competition.As the important international trade port on West Pacific coast and crucialmaritime transport hub, in recent years, Qingdao has become the third containershipping port in China just after Shanghai and Shenzhen port by virtue of its ownadvantages and good momentum of development. At the same time, however, theQingdao port is facing fierce competitive situation for external and internal. Due tothe lack of scientific division, the neighboring ports rushed to be the first to launch ore,container and coal terminals, as the result, the advantageous goods throughput ofQingdao is taking the risk of being weakened. All these cause tremendous pressure onits development.Faced with this situation, the Qingdao port should seek a development strategyfor the port’s own situation based on the control of the current development status ofthe port and a reasonable forecast of the future. It is an important part of each port inthe development process to carry out reasonable development plans and developtargeted port development strategy on the basis of a comprehensive and in-depthunderstanding of the current situation and scientific predictions for of the futuredevelopment trends. And the most important one is the port throughput analysis andforecasting.This article will take the Qingdao port as the object of study, based on theanalysis of its port throughput, as well as goods category to have a complete controlof their development status and clear the main advantageous goods category. On thisbasis, using the combination forecasting model based on gray prediction model andBP neural model, we carry out and scientific prediction of cargo throughput and maincargo throughput of the Qingdao port in order to grasp the future development trendof Qingdao port reasonably. Finally, the throughput of several kinds of main cargo and design throughput capacity of Qingdao port professional berth are compared toanalyze the adaptability of its berth handling capacity. On the basis of relatedconclusions of all these analysis, relevant recommendations and strategies for thedevelopment of Qingdao port are given.