Application Of Grey System Theory For Port Container Throughput Forecasting

The port container throughput is influenced by many factors. The correlation between these factors is complex,but they are restricted by certain regulation. If we had the ability to know the variety and internalities relationship of these factors,mastered the regulation of these factors variety,we could selected the appropriate model. Throughput forecast experiment of Wuhu port containers recently indicated that it appeared obvious difference between conclusion obtained by quantitative analysis and status in quo,owing to native economic developing very quickly,macro conomical policy reforming constantly,domestic and international market condition phantasmagoric.Aiming at the fact that shock-vibration problem appears in the prediction of Wuhu port containers throughput, according to the priority principle of the newest information of the grey systems theory, basing on introducing the sequence operator to generate the grey sequence successfully, this paper proposed an Metabolic GM (1,1) Model where xi(1)(n) be taken as initial value.The experiment indicated that the forecasting precision is obviously improved and a reasonable forecasting value is achieved.