| Financial crisis has always been a world-wide issue and difficult problem. With the rapiddevelopment of the social economic and the increasingly fierce market competition,enterprises are facing more pressure. There are too many situations, e.g., policy blunders, poormanagement, risk oversight, resulting in financial crisis, which in turn affect the enterprises’development.The corporate financial crisis is a deteriorating process. In different stage it has differentfinancial characteristics and incentives. If we can build a stage forecasting model which hashigher forecast accuracy, and through which can identify the early potential crisis and thereason of it, it is bound to produce important practical value to the enterprise financial crisismanagement. At the same time, this research will also bring important theoretical significancefor the definition of each stage about the development of the financial crisis.Based on the meaning of the financial crisis, this article divided the developmentprocess of the corporate financial crisis into three stages in theory: the latent stage,development stage and deterioration stage. On the basis of referencing the domestic andforeign research, this article broken the limitations of the traditional index system which isfinancial ratio-based, selected relevant indicators of enterprise’s economic activity, owngrowth and the governance capacity. Meanwhile this article selected37enterprises frommanufacturing industry which were special treated in2009to2011and didn’t have specialtreatment records in the last five years, and in accordance with1:1matching principle, itselected37non-ST enterprises as the non-financial crisis sample group. Then chose the twogroups’ five years’ data before they were special treated, used method of testing the meandifferences between two groups year by year, found that in five years before the crisishappened, financial crisis enterprises had increasingly indicators which were significantdifferent with the normal enterprises year by year. And the article divided this process intothree stages: the latent stage, development stage and deterioration stage. Finally, used eachstage’s index variables according to the previous text, and used Logistic regression to buildthe financial crisis latent stage model and the financial crisis development stage model. Thetwo models have passed the text and were proved to have better forecast accuracy. |
