The Research Of Sebacic Acid For Reasons Of Price Fluctuating And Countermeasures

The founder of Neoclassical economics Marshall, considers marketvalue or price is determined by the supply and demand, the price is theequilibrium price when market supply is equal to market demand. Marx’sLabor Theory of Value takes the abstract labor in production as thesubstantial value of commodity, which is determined by the sociallynecessary labor time of production, price is the currency performance ofthe value. Labor Theory of Value is abstract description of market price,and the Equilibrium Price Theory is the empirical analysis of the marketprice, thus the two seemingly diametrically opposed theories areessentially identical. Two theories could combine and come into beingLabor Theory of Value based on Equilibrium Price Theory.On the basis of Marshall Equilibrium Theory of Value and Marx’sTheory of Value, with the utilizing of the data for the year of2007-2011,this thesis analyzed the factors of supply, demand and cost which affectsthe price fluctuating of sebacic acid by quantitative analysis. ThroughPrinciple Component Analysis, we found supply and demand were the major factors affected price fluctuating mostly, demand increased pulledup the price, however surplus supply restrained the price level; In theview of cost, cost of castor oil and exchange rate of RMB was obviouslycorrelated with sebacic acid price, cost pushed up sebacic acid price.This thesis illustrated the mechanism of action of sebacic acid’smain effect factors. From January2007to November2008, the increaseof castor oil price and the RMB appreciation pushed up sebacic acid pricesignificantly; From December2008to July2009, demand and castor oilprice went down impacted by financial analysis, sebacic acid pricedropped correspondingly. From Aug2009to June2011, the demand ofsebacic acid toke off rapidly, with the driving of increasing down streamapplication, recovering of global economy and the support of reboundingcasotr oil price, which caused dramatic price rise of sebacic acid. FromJuly to the end of2011, until the time being of this writing, sebacic acidprice kept declining, which nearly broke production cost, impacted bydepression of EU economy, weak demand and surplus industry capacity.This thesis researched for the reasons for the changes of sebacic aciddemand, supply and cost further. The growth(shrink) of sebacic aciddownstream industry and economic prosperity affected the demand ofsebacic acid; Once vigorous demand stimulated the blind expansion ofproduction capacity, and exacerbated the oversupply situation; Poordevelopment of downstream applications and homogeneous product restrained the continuous growth of demand; the monopoly supply ofcastor oil and extensive application led to short oil supply and pushed upsebacic acid cost year by year; imbalance of foreign exchange revenueand spending and political factors resulted in the cost of internationaltrading.Combined the characters of of sebacic acid industry of low fundsand technology content and the extraversion of this industry, this thesisraised its recommendations for the benign development of the industry:reinforcing the upstream industry chain, stabilizing castor oil supply;developing differentiated products and lower the competition fromsubstitutions; extending downstream product chain to achieve industryupgrade; utilizing financing tools to control the risk of foreign exchange;improving industry entry barrier confining the blind expansion ofcapacity.