The Sustainable Capability Evaluation Of Natural Gas Safety Supply In Tianjin

In the12th Five-Year Plan of China, included the " Green de velopment a ndbuilding a resource saving and environment-friendly society" in the Outline for theDevelopment of C hina, a s t he national e conomic de velopment a nd t ransformationfocus of the next stage. As one of China’s four municipalities, the future developmentorientation of Tianjin will be "efficient, environmentally friendly, energy-saving",playa leading and exemplary role in the economic development transformation of China.Its economic de velopment m odel s hould f irst comply w ith t he n ational pol icy, tocomplete t he gr een e conomic de velopment transformation. As a cl ean ene rgy, t heNatural Gas play an irreplaceable role in the process of economic transformation.Sustainable and safe supply of Natural Gas will become an important factor in theTianjin smooth economic transition.The paper mainly research the sustainable security supply of the Natural Gas inTianjin. Analyze Sustainable supply security of Natural Gas in Tianjin from Tianjinfuture demand and supply security responses, the main work as follows:(1) Base on the current na tural gas de mand c onditions in Tianjin, forecast theNatural gas demand for the "12th Five-Year Plan" period. Provide data to support thesustainable security of suppl y for t he T ianjin Natural G as and Policy R eference.Summary of the forecasting methods of the natural gas demand at the present stage,indicating that t he ch aracteristics of t he m ethods and processes, an d methods o fcomparative analysis to find the best way of Tianjin natural gas forecast.(2) The results of the c omparison of pr ediction methods, c ombined w ith t hecharacteristics of the forecasting methods, pa pers in the e xisting gr ay pr edictionmethod based on the high accuracy of time series based on the forecast accuracy ofless than defects on the inflection point for the gray prediction method to derive theDiscrete Difference E quation P rediction M odel to predict t he f uture de mand f ornatural gas in Tianjin; ve rify t he a ccuracy of the Discrete D ifference E quationPrediction Model for the error between the calculation of predicted values and actualvalues to the assessment of the predictive value of the overall error rate.(3) According t o t he pr edictions of t he Discrete Difference Equation PredictionModel, Tianjin natural g as de mand in the future to make t he ove rall asses smentanalysis. Stability of both the stability and natural gas pipelines from the gas supplysource, t he analysis of the s ustainable s ecurity of ga s s upply i n Tianjin, a nd put forward policy recommendations, and sustainable security of supply to supplementthe emergency rescue of city gas pipeline network analysis.