Forecasting Study On Peasants’ Income Of Henan Province Based On Rough Sets Theory

Abstract:The "three rural" issue is one of the important problems in the social and economic development of China in the new era, and it is valued highly by government at all levels. To be populous and agricultural province, Henan places the "three rural" issue in an important position in the construction of Central Plains Zone, and how to increase the peasants’ income is the important content of the "three rural" issue. However, there are many factors affecting peasants’income, so how to discriminate and diagnosis these and take basic judgment and prediction for peasants’ income based on these factors are of great realistic meaning to make the developing policy for countryside and agriculture scientifically and lead peasants to adjust the structure of agriculture industry correctly and arrange the agricultural production reasonably and increase the income effectively.There are a lot of documents on analyzing the affecting factors of peasants’ income and forecasting regional peasants’income.Taking the situation o peasants’income in Henan as research object, firstly, the paper explores the basic trends and affecting factors of the change of peasants’income in Henan at the base of systematic analyzing the structural changes in peasants’ income and making the domestic inter-provincial comparison; secondly, in order to scientifically judge and forecast the future trends of peasants’income, the paper attempts to take Rough Sets Theory as means to forecast peasants’income based on the comparison of the existing prediction methods and systematic analysis of Rough Sets Theory; then, the paper selects peasants’average net income in Henan Province as the decision attribute and total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, total sown areas of farm crops, total yield of farm crop and disaster area as condition attribute to predict the peasants’ income in Henan province with the help of Rosetta software. Finally, the paper gives an analysis of the results. At last, the effectiveness and superiority of Rough Sets Theory in forecasting peasants’ income are discussed, and a study summary is given.Using Rough Sets Theory to forecast peasants’income is just an attempt for it. In fact, there are Many factors affecting peasants’income, the paper only selects four more important factors as condition attribute prediction research, which is not nearly enough. It is possibly more reasonably to introduce more affecting factors, which is waiting to be studied in the future.