Research On Evaluation Of Overcapacity In China’s Industry Based On Rough Sets Theory

During the last decade,China’s economy has developed rapidly and the process of urbanization has been accelerating.As a result,blind investment and redundant construction have appeared in some industries,especially after the government introduced policies to stimulate the economy in order to alleviate the impact of the financial crisis in 2008.For example,the problem of heavy overcapacity has arisen in coal,steel,cement and other industries.In recent years,with the intensification of investment,the problem of overcapacity has been more and more serious.It has even gradually spread from traditional heavy industries such as coal and steel to textile,clothing and other light industries.So,it has been imminent to deal with overcapacity.Domestic research on overcapacity issues generally uses the criteria of European and American countries directly and doesn’t take into account the technological level of our country.It’s not accurate and persuasive to judge whether there is overcapacity in the industry only by using capacity utilization rate.In order to solve the problem of inaccuracy of single index,some scholars began to try to establish evaluation system,but most of them remained at the theoretical level.Only a few scholars used quantitative analysis method such as AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.There is subjective problem of these methods in data processing for index weighting.In order to solve this problem,the rough sets theory is applied to the field of overcapacity research for the first time.What’s more,the theory is objective in data processing,and it can delete redundant indicators to establish a more scientific evaluation system,so that we can make a more accurate judgment on the overcapacity of China’s industrial sector.Firstly,in view of the advantage of reduction index in rough sets,this paper considers the influence factors and reaction factors of the overcapacity synthetically and establishes a more comprehensive and perfect index system that includes four first-level indicators and 25 second-level indicators from the perspectives of supply,demand,and economic benefits.Secondly,the attribute reduction theory of rough sets is used to delete redundant or unimportant indexes so as to establish a more scientific evaluation index system.Then,we use the double attribute combination importance degree determination method to obtain more accurate secondary index weights,but the weight of the primary index obtained by this method is zero.In order to solve this problem,this paper first proposes a three-attribute combination importance degree determination method to obtain the weight of the first class index.At the same time,the subjectivity of the commonly used methods past is eliminated.Finally,based on the global weights and normalized values of the secondary indicators,the comprehensive assessment of the overcapacity in various industries from 2014 to 2016 is obtained.we use the majority principle and Borda Count method to judge the excess production industry and put forward suggestions in terms of early warning mechanisms,supply-side reforms,industrial structures,and financial resource allocation based on the results and the current status of overcapacity in China.