International Competitveness Comparison And Development Prospects Forecast Of The Fuel Ethanol Industry

The global energy consumption keeps increasing, oil reserves is limited and will be depleted. Facing the issues of energy security and increasingly serious environmental problems, fuel ethanol as a new sort of two-way cleaning and renewable energy has got wide concern and attention all over the world. The United States and Brazil took the lead in the development of fuel ethanol industry. Although these countries have different levels of economic development, industrial base, market environment as well as industrial development model, they all have relatively strong international competitiveness, that provide positive reference to China’s fuel ethanol industry which started industrial development late and has weak international competitiveness.This paper focuses on the United States, Brazil, the European Union and China, begins with analysis of current development status of fuel ethanol industry in these four countries (regions), compares and analyses industry international competitiveness and its influencing factors of each country from multi-level and multi-angle-depth. On this basis, using combination model to do forward-looking forecast of industrial development prospects of these four countries (regions), then point out the direction to improve international competitiveness of China’s fuel ethanol industry. The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:1. Based on classical theory of industrial development to analyze the mechanism of development of fuel ethanol industry, make international comparisons of four driven factor in fuel ethanol industry-supply, demand, government and technology. Summarize the maturity of industrial development of each country, and draw the conclusion that Brazil has the highest industrial development maturity, followed by the United States. China is still in the industrial infancy.2. Use RCA TC index to measure the international competitiveness of fuel ethanol industry in four countries (regions), draw the conclusion that Brazil has the most competitive, followed by United States, China, EU has the least competitive. Empirical analysis of industrial competitiveness impact factors of fuel ethanol industries in four countries (regions) based on Diamond Model, then find that the development model of fuel ethanol industry competitiveness has significant differences in each country. U.S. industrial competitiveness is driven by the factors of production and government policies. Brazil is driven by the automotive industry. EU is limited by regional demand. China is mainly driven by government policy. The role of market factors has not yet been fully reflected3. Use the VAR-SVM combination model to forecast short-term supply and demand of fuel ethanol industry in major foreign countries. The combination model fully considered the historical supply, demand and the current factors, improved data fitting and prediction accuracy. The forecast results show that the supply and demand of the United States will maintain its current growth rate, and its export capacity will increase. The supply and demand growth of Brazil will slow down, and the ability to export will be stable. The growth of EU will accelerate, and its import dependence will increase.4. Forecast short-term and long-term supply and demand of China’s fuel ethanol, using the raw materials classification method to forecast supply and the gasoline consumption alternative method to forecast demand. The results show that non-grain ethanol in short-term, non-grain ethanol and cellulosic ethanol in medium and long-term will be the main growth point of supply, and there is huge potential for development in the supply, demand and export of China’s fuel ethanol industry.5. Based on industrial competitiveness analysis and forecasting analysis, this paper summed up the advantages of China’s fuel ethanol are rich potential supply, strong support of government and high potential export capability, while the disadvantages are technology gap, backward related industries and low degree of market, then put forward the suggestions of China’s fuel ethanol development accordingly.