Research On Hebei Vegetables Price Fluctuation Characteristics And Influence Factors

In recent years, farmers "vegetables" difficult "and the residents buy vegetablesexpensive" highlights the growing problem."Food basket" a head of the vital interests ofurban residents, affect the majority of residents living; the other is connected to a prosperousand stable farmers money, the rural economy, the two are people’s livelihood. Therefore,"food basket" price stability, maintained at a reasonable price, is conducive to the economicand social stability, and production to mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers. On the contrary,change radically in the price of vegetables, not only farmers look not clear price signals, blindcultivation, resulting in the loss of, will affect the residents of the expected consumption.Vegetables are an important agricultural products and daily necessities, the relationshipbetween the beneficial to the people’s livelihood, it plays an important role in enriching theurban residents basket, the prosperity of the rural economy, increasing farmers’ income, but inrecent years,"food basket" price hand vegetable leggy, volatility, urban residents reactedstrongly; on the other hand, increased competition, declining farmers grow vegetablesbenefits, dish cheap is hurt farming incident occurred. Sharp fluctuations in prices ofvegetables, the impact to urban residents life, also caused the farmers income instability, butalso not conducive to the stable and healthy development of vegetable industry.Hebei Province as China’s vegetable growing province, this causes the foundationresearch of vegetable price fluctuation and its rules, further enrich the theoretical research onvegetable production, circulation, and explore the countermeasures to maintain stable pricesof vegetables, which can provide reference for vegetable production operators, consumer, andcan provide decision basis on stability measures the price of vegetables for the government tograsp the law of motion, the price of vegetables. Therefore, this research has theoretical andpractical significance.In this paper, using the basic theory of economics, by means of literature induction, thequalitative and quantitative analysis, normative analysis and empirical analysis combiningmethods such as the premise, in the vegetable price fluctuation theory, analysis the factors ofprice volatility characteristic interannual, Hebei Province vegetable years and its effects, anddiscusses the reasonable price volatility of vegetables the interval estimation and the prices ofvegetables, finally proposed mitigation policies and suggestions of fluctuations in the price ofvegetables. This paper is divided into six parts:The first part: introduces the background and significance, literature review, researchmethods, research innovation and vegetable prices related. The second part: mainly elaborated the classification, vegetable price fluctuation ofagricultural product price fluctuation, the cobweb theory and other related theories, this paperprovides a theoretical basis for the analysis of.The third part: describe the interannual fluctuation characteristics of vegetables in HebeiProvince, analyzes the impact of supply and demand in Hebei province interannualfluctuations in the price of vegetables for the factors of influence factors and other influence,and carries on the empirical analysis of influence factors using factor analysis method.The fourth part: the use of Hebei Provincial Bureau of statistics monthly average price ofvegetables, vegetable prices during the year in accordance with the characteristics of pricefluctuation will be divided into three categories, and analyzes its reason; the seasonal sexseven kinds of vegetables, cabbage, tomatoes, seasonal index calculated by trend model, andcompared with the separation of seasonal component price.The fifth part: periodic characteristic analysis of fluctuations in the price of vegetables,according to the fluctuation of prices of vegetables, vegetable price fluctuation reasonableinterval calculation using wave index method.The sixth part: according to the characteristics and influence factors of price fluctuationin vegetables of Hebei Province, put forward the policy and suggestion to stabilize the priceof vegetables.The innovation of this paper mainly in the following aspects: first, in the analysis of thefactors affecting the interannual fluctuations in the price of vegetables in Hebei Province, asvariables using an empirical analysis of the vegetable price index. Second, in the analysis ofHebei Province vegetable prices this year fluctuations, according to the classification of thefluctuation characteristics, and the use of seasonal vegetables by sexual intercourse calculatethe seasonal index trend model. Third, in the elimination of factors influencing long-termtrend in the price of vegetables and seasonal changes, proposed to the existing vegetablesmonthly average price data, using reasonable interval of vegetable price index to measurefluctuations in the price of vegetables.