A Research On The Credit Risk For SMEs

Since the1980s, with the increasingly prominent role of SMEs to national economicdevelopment, an irreplaceable prominent role in stimulating economic growth, promotingindustry competition, promoting industrial innovation, is increasing national revenue,creating employment opportunities and the absorption of surplus labor.Not only does itprovide a large number of employment opportunities, also created a lot of national wealth,but also to be of the indispensable part of the foundation to promote the reform ofeconomic system and technical innovation, we can say that SMEs have been increasinglybecome the world economic growth is one of the main engine.Compared with the contribution of SMEs to the economy, the financing of SMEsfrom financial institutions to obtain foreign aid has become one of the bottlenecks thatconstrain SMEs and more than98%of SMEs do not have access to bank loans.However,for most SMEs lack of funds and become serious bottlenecks in the development of SMEs,commercial banks to their own interests and credit risk consideration and have no efforts todevelop SMEs’ credit market, not mention to solve the difficulty in financing smes.Oneimportant reason is that the banks can not properly measure the implicit risk of lending toSMEs and then make the right decisions.Throughout the research status, the foreign credit risk analysis and managementmethods are becoming increasingly mature and perfect, but it is mainly used to analyze andmanage publicly traded, transparent financial information of the debtor or borrower, and inrelatively good credit system environment, and dwell little on unsound financial, smallscale and poor credit risk of loans to SMEs.And although domestic scholars research theSMEs’ loan credit risk, the research method basically in qualitative analysis, or to start outfrom the subjective evaluation, not a mature credit risk analysis and management model forcommercial banks in practical use.In this paper, on the basis of the research background, I make a review of relevanttheories and assessment methods, first by defining SMEs and credit risk and somecorrelation theories, I analyze the causes of the SMEs’ credit risk, mainly from themacroeconomic environment, micro-enterprise internal factors (including their own quality,management ability, credit system, etc.) and information asymmetry between banks andenterprises and other factors.And then select the38listed SMEs in Shandong Province as a sample, use econometric methods and multi-co linearity test to select the4macroeconomicindicators (growth rate of industrial added value, total retail sales of social consumer goods,the CPI and exchange rates), and4credit capacity factor indicators (solvency factor,profitability capacity factor, operating capacity factor and growth capacity factor), build aLogistic model based on macroeconomic factors, and thus to do empirical research forthe sample SMEs.Finally, through the empirical and normative analysis, from theperspective of commercial banks to do measurement and prediction for SMEs’ credit risk,so as to commercial banks to SMEs’ credit risk early warning, and formulate correspondingmeasures to provide reference.