The Research On SMEs Credit Risk Assessment Based On Logistic Model

In China, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) created more than 60 percent of GDP and provided the main wage income for more than 300 million urban employment, and play an important role in the national economy and social development. However, it is difficult for the majority of SMEs to match between the contribution to the economy and support got from the society. The problem of financing is still a bottleneck hinder for the development and growth of SMEs, and one of the important reasons for this situation is that the information between the bank and the enterprise is asymmetric. Therefore, the study of SMEs credit risk assessment, to build a scientific and reasonable credit risk evaluation system and to establish the applicable assessment model has practical significance to solve the problem of corporate financing.In the previous sections, the article sorts the development characteristics of SMEs,SME’s credit risk characteristics and the status of the SME credit risk assessment systematically.Also the article analyzes and studies the problems in the SME credit risk assessment process in our country,and have targeted a method to solve the above problems analyzed.In later chapters,on the basis of the existing research, we rebuild the evaluation index system for SMEs credit risk, abandon the tedious tradition and consider the internal or external factors of SMEs which reflected credit quality. We employ the indicators of R&D expenditure/total assets and equity nature into the index system for the first time, which reflect the innovation capacity and the ownership structure of SMEs respectively. With the help of principal component analysis, we will extract six common factors and build credit risk evaluation model--logistic model. The results showed that the indicators of "tangible assets and liabilities ratio", "operating profit", "ROE", "inventory turnover", "(the most recent annual report year-year of establishment)","equity nature" and "R&D expenditure/total assets" played a significant role in this model. The established model has good discriminatory power and applicability for SME credit quality evaluation at this stage. It is good to see that to build a targeted index system and select an appropriate model is important for the research on the SME credit risk assessment, and provide a scientific and convenient reference to determine the credit quality of SMEs for banks and other financial institutions.