Research On Credit Risk Of Small And Medium-Sized Enterprises Based On Logistic Model

Since the reform and opening up,small and medium-sized enterprises have increasingly become one of the main engines of China's economic growth.However,the financing problem has always been an obstacle to the development of small and medium-sized enterprises.Since 2018,the problem has become more prominent in the face of increasing downward pressure and liquidity shortage.To this end,the regulatory authorities formulated and landed a number of policies aimed at ensuring the scale of bank lending and creating a good financing environment for SMEs.The high credit risk of SMEs and the difficulty of evaluation result in the low pass rate of loans in commercial banks,which is an important reason for the financ:ing difficulties of SMEs.In order to improve the financing status of SMEs and support their development,commercial banks urgently need to establish a credit risk assessment system matching SMEs in China.Based on the data of 29 SMEs with credit default and 87 SMEs without credit default from 2010 to 2018,this paper chooses 23 financial indicators,which cover corporate solvency,profitability,operational capacity,development capacity and per share index,and 3 corporate governance structure indicators.Through Mann-Whitney U test and multi-collinearity test,and factor analysis to extract common factors,using Logistic regression model to build credit risk assessment system based on financial indicators and credit risk assessment system based on financial indicators and non-financial indicators respectively.The empirical results show that:(1)the model can play a good role in predicting the credit risk of SMEs;(2)the model with non-financial indicators is superior to the model with only financial indicators in terms of goodness of fit and accuracy of prediction;(3)the solvency factor,operational capacity factor,development ability factor and the proportion of the largest shareholder holding in the model and the credit risk of enterprises In inverse proportion,the size of board of directors is proportional to the credit risk of enterprises;(4)Based on sample ratio and misjudged cost,when the default threshold is 0.3,the performance of the model is optimal.