Studies Of The Relationship Between Chinese Age Structure And Household Consumption

In recent years, there has been a decline trend in Chinese consumption, with Chinese rapid economic development. As we all know, final consumption is one of the important factors in stimulating economic growth, therefore its decline will surely hinder Chinese economic growth. Final consumption includes household consumption and government consumption. The ratio of government consumption to GDP has remained relatively stable, so the decline of final consumption due to the decline of the household consumption. In the same period, significant changes had taken place on Chinese age structure. For example, the dependency ratio of the children had been declining for a long time, while the dependency ratio of the olds has been increasing gradually. And these changes turned Chinese age structure from type of high children dependency ratio in early days to type of high olds dependency ratio nowadays. This paper resulted from the simultaneously occurring of these two phenomena. And there was important practical significance for the study of Chinese age structure and consumption. Through the study of age structure, we can examine the impact on Chinese economic development from the changing age structure, which could provide theoretical explanation for the timely adjustment of Chinese demographic policy. Meanwhile, by studying household consumption, we can find out the cause of the low level in nowadays household consumption, according to which we can develop appropriate solutions that can make household consumption (moreover final consumption) be the remained driving force to Chinese economic growth.First of all, through the study of relevant literature at home and abroad, making comments on their strong and weak points, then making use of the strong ones and seeking innovation to improve the weak ones, the research ideas of this article then formed. In the coming steps, this paper analyzed the changes in Chinese age structure and household consumption, and pointed out that Chinese children dependency ratio and olds dependency ratio have been respectively experiencing decline and rising, which has been explained out at the same time; in addition, it also found a gradual decline of Chinese household consumption ratio in recent years. Then this paper individually used panel data and macroeconomic time series data to make positive analyses of the relationship between Chinese age structures and household consumption, which concluded that there were positive connections between children dependency ratio and the ratio of consumption to GDP, and negative connections between olds dependency ratio and the ratio of consumption to GDP. From the positive analysis, this paper also made conclusions that there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between age structure and the two dependency ratios, and the age structure do Granger cause household consumption. At last, it made a brief abstract of the whole text, and made the main point from the positive analysis clear again.