The Jing Jin Tang Region That Urban Expansion Scale And Future Scene Simulation In Nearly30Years

In the background context of economic globalization andurbanization, the urbanization process in China is rapidly accelerating.With the continuous expansion of China’s urban land area and greatexpansion of population, the contradiction between urban land use andfarmland protection, urban land use and population, urban land use andenvironment may becomeeven more acute.Therefore, it is of greatsignificance for the consideration of urban health and long-lastingdevelopment to study urban land expansion,including its size(scale),characteristics, driving forces and future urban scenarios,so that anoptimal allocation of urban land use can be come into being.This research took the urban land use of Jing Jin Tang region as itsobject,and analysised the urban land expansion process of this area basingon its1979,1990,2000and2010urban spatial data as well as somerelated statistics.The research results showed that there is a pattern ofurban land use expansion and its driving force.In addition, coupled to theLIM model,a simulation of city development under the condition offuture population state can be carried out.The detail information about itsconclusions is:(1) The analysis results of the urban land expansion process in JingJin Tang region in the nearly30years indicated that, the area of urbanland use had a rapid growth, and both the average area and average rate ofits annual expansion were significantly increased.Overall, the proportionof urban land area in the Jing Jin Tang region is increasing continuously,accounting for2.14%of the total land area in1979, accounting for2.30%in1990, accounting for3.73%in2000,and accounting for5.28%in2008.The urban land area has been increasing with the annual speed of70.05km2. During the urban land expansion process, the maximum expansion area period was the period from2000to2008, with expansionarea of1153.19km2, and dynamic degree of6.99%. From the regionaldegree, Beijing had the most dramatic expansion, especially in the periodfrom1990to2000, the dynamic degree was11.35%. In the nearly30years, Beijing had an average annual increase of40.67km2, three cities inHebei province had an average annual increase of15.23km2, and Tianjinhad an average annual increase of14.14km2。(2)Urban land expansion in the Jing Jin Tang area is the result ofmultiple driving factors. Based on urban land use data analysis andsocio-economic statistics in the Jing Jin Tangregion, the main impactfactors of the urban land expansion were summarized, includingpopulation growth factor, socio-economic factor, infrastructureinvestment factor, policy-oriented factorand so on. Among these decidingfactors, the coefficient of determination between urban population andurban land expansion was relatively high,especially in beijing it reached0.947, and0.960between economic factor and urban land expansion,additionally the correlation between infrastructure investment factor andurban land expansion was also very high.(3)By using the LTM model, the urban expansion status in Jing JinTang regionin2020was simulated. It showed that the three cities in Hebeiprovince had the fastest pace of expansion, significantly higher thanTianjin and Beijing. Compared to the urban expansion speed from2000to2008, it is slower in the future. The main development centertransferred from the city of Beijing, Tianjin to the city of Langfang,Tangshan and Qinhuangdao in Hebei province. Based on the modelsimulation, urban agglomeration area in the Jing Jin Tang will reach3561.85km2in2020, with urban land growth area of346.99km2compared with2008, and an annual growth rate of10.79%. Subjected tothe policy-oriented role,the speed of urban land expansion will slowdown.(4)Based on the research of urban land expansion scale and the simulation of future urban expansion, opinions and recommend actions ofurban development in the the Jing Jin Tang region were proposed, it mayprovide the bases for urban planning and environmental improvement inthe the Jing Jin Tang region.