Analysis And Simulation Study Of Fuzhou Urban Land Expansion

In the wave of global economic development,urbanization,as a kind of inevitable phenomenon arises at the historic moment.China is in the stage of rapid development of urbanization,facing rapid development and urban land planning control,supply and demand,resource utilization and environmental protection and other aspects of the contradiction.Therefore,it is very important to study the simulation and prediction of urban land expansion in order to balance the process of urbanization and the sustainable development of urban land.Choosing Fuzhou city that is important gateway in the west of china as the research area,first,taking the Landsat TM/ETM +images of Fuzhou City in 2000-2015 as the Validation data by using the method for automatic classification and manual cross combination of computer,extracted the spatial information of Fuzhou urban;At the same time,combined with the social,economic and the cultural data of Fuzhou city in 2000-2015,the driving factors of city are studied;Then,Creatively using Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR)as the transformation rules of CA layer based on the multi-level constraint condition,from the microscopic point of view,taking into account the geographical location,natural factors and the multi criteria and willingness of various agents to make decisions on environmental changing,and taking on the urban land use of multi temporal remote sensing images as a reference,with the help of GIS spatial analysis technology,build the CA and ABM coupled simulation model of urban land expansion.Based on Visual Studio 2010 development platform and c# language,we worked out the model.Finally,we predicted the urban expansion in Fuzhou in the year of 2020 and 2030 based on the simulation scenarios of Using the optimization model based on the use of the subject,which could provide technical support and advice for urban development planning.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)Spatiotemporal characteristics of the urban expansion process in Fuzhou: In the year of 2000-2015,the expansion of urban land in Fuzhou showed a trend of continuous development,and the rate of expansion is increasing;And the process of land expansion in the city,the area of unused land was the largest,followed by woodland,and both for city expansion and invasion of other types of land area ratio of 78.89%;At the same time,in 2000-2015 years,with the main focus of migration westward of Fuzhou city;the highest of expansion amount gradually away from the city center.In 2000-2015,the efficiency of land use in Fuzhou city was gradually intensive from extensive.(2)Analysis on driving forces of urban land expansion in Fuzhou: The increase of population,the growth of GDP and the port is related to land transformation of the same period in Fuzhou,and the overall upward trend is the same,so their interaction led to with the expansion of Fuzhou city.At the same time through the analysis of the global logistic regression and geographic weighted logistic regression shows that the overall topography,location,river,traffic,education and medical conditions are significant influence on the expansion of city land.The influence of the distance of elevation,slope,light and the general highway,river,school,hospital are great affect and space significantly diversity on expansion of city land and.(3)CA-ABM validation and prediction of urban expansion: Based on the analysis of spatial and temporal characteristics and driving forces of urban land in Fuzhou,using the theory of cellular automata,multi agent and GIS spatial analysis,the CA-ABM model is implemented through the ArcGIS two Engine development.The model parameters were adjusted and improved by the actual urban distribution in 2000-2015.Then,form the microscopic point of view,the CA-ABM model was used to simulate the change of urban land use in real time,At the same time,the simulation results were verified by the point to point and Kappa coefficients,and the overall accuracy is above 0.8,which indicates that the simulation results based on the CA-ABM model to simulate the expansion of urban land in Fuzhou have strong reliability.Finally,designing three prediction scenarios with the resident agents,development agents and government agents as the dominant,the urban land expansion in Fuzhou in 2020 and 2030 was forecasted,and the landscape pattern index was analyzed.The results show that the resident agents,development agents and government agents play important roles in the process of urban land expansion,the organic combination of the three agents can be used in city space planning toward a healthy,orderly and stable development,while improving the efficiency of land utilization.