Analysis On Features Of International Grain Price Volatility And ITS Influencing Factors

On the background of worldwide economy uniformity which is characterized by product globalization, capital globalization and market globalization, from the perspective of food security, China’s grain policy may changed to be more open policy, so as to reduce the cost of the traditional food reserve mechanism, to improve the policy efficiency and raise the level of food security. However, globalization also means risks of the international grain market transfer worldwide, and will resulting in serious consequences to many countries, especially developing countries. The2007-2008world food crisis is an example that is still fresh to many people. The grain prices experienced violent fluctuation. It is in this background, this paper puts forward a train of thought to understand the risk of international grain prices and ways how to deal with it.In the internationalization and market background, aiming at the international market risk, this paper makes empirical researches from the following three aspects: First of all, in the absence of exogenous variables, it studies the features of the international food prices fluctuating itself, i.e. the characteristics of risk; Secondly, on the basis of above analysis, this paper puts into new related exogenous variables, to discusses the root of fluctuation; Finally, relating the international and Chinese food price fluctuation, it makes an analysis of markets dynamic correlation.The results show that:the characteristics of international rice, soybeans, wheat and maize differs from grain varieties; The international rice price is influenced by its own lag items, and is positively correlate with the international chemical fertilizer price index; the export restrictions of rice main producers and the deepen of trade liberalization degree will significantly increase and decease the international rice price fluctuation respectively; International grain prices volatilities have higher fluctuation ratio than China; the contact of Chinese soybean future price and international soybean future price is increasingly close.Innovation:inheriting a newly thought that to apply financial risk analysis tools-ARCH family model to the field of food security research, this paper puts into new factors which may cause grain price volatility to enrich the model’s economic meaning; By introducing DCC-GARCH model to study the dynamic correlations between different grain markets, it expands and deepens the existing grain price volatility empirical research and analysis framework which only include feature and factor analysis; Using student-t distribution that is more conform to the data distribution characteristics to estimate DCC-GARCH model, it optimizes the model estimation effect. The related conclusions of this paper are of reference value for China’s food security policy making in the international background.