A Research On The Impact Of International Food Prices Volatility On China’s Grain Trade Security

Althou China’s grain output has risen for ten years, China’s grain imports are also rising, and our food security becomes more sensitive to the world food price volatility. International food price volatility transmission has major impact on domestic farming, agricultural production, processing and consuption. Under this background, it’s very necessary to stuty the impact mechanism of international food price fluctuations on China’s grain trade securityExisting research is mainly based on the influence factors of the international grain price fluctuation, fluctuation characteristics, transmission channels and conduction effect, the measurement of food security and forecasting of future food gap, the international price fluctuation’s influence of domestic food prices, food consumption, income and food industry chain, but is lack of studying the systemic effecting mechanism of the internationnal food price volatility on food trade security.Therefore, on the basis of existing research, this article builds a research framework of international food price volitility’s effect on food trade security. Food gaps, grain prices, grain trade flows and grain trade policies are deemed as representative indexes of grain trade security. The sysmetic influencial mechanism and results of international food prices fluctuation on food trade security are researched.Firstly, This paper examines the grain supply, demand and trade status of the world and China, and finds out the important influence factors of grain supply and demand. Then the food gap exchanging trends of2015-2050are analysed by using the forecasting methods of trend extrapolation, exponential smoothing and gray prediction.Secondly based on the perspective of non-traditional security, the level of China’s grain trade security are mesured by using pricipal component analysis, and the main risk of China’s grain trade security sources are discussed from the dimensions of "security transformation","security threats" and "security sense",Thirdly, food gap, food prices, trade flows and trade policies are chosen to be representative index of food trade security, and two countires trade modle are adopted to analyse the transmition mechanism of international food fluctuations to food trade security. There are four transmission mechanism, indlucing trade gains mechanism, the price transmission mechanism, trade flow mechanism and isolation mechanism.Finally, the four transmission mechanisms are empirically tested respectively.(1)The "international food price volatility-food trade costs-food trade gains-domestic food gap" effect mechanism are tested by simultaneous equation model.(2)The influence of international grain prices and oil price shocks on the domestic food prices are tested by two step asymmetric ECM model, VEC model and VAR model.(3)The international food price volatility and the financial and energy shock’s impact on the global and domestic food trade flow are examined by asymmetric effect model, the SVAR model and fixed effect panel model.(4) Fixed effect panel model are used to make clear the effect of international grain price fluctuations on China’s grain trade partners’trade policies.This paper gets the following conclusions. First, there will be a balance between supply and demand of future global food. However, China’s future food supply and demand gap will increase. Second, China’s grain trade security are mostly at weak state and inferior state. The main factors influencing China’s grain trade security, by importance, is the competitiveness of the grain industry, the domestic markets, the external impact factors, industrial policies, possibility being controlled and international markets. Third, the international price swings influence the food gap in our country through trade gains mechanisms, affect food prices in China through price transmitting mechanism, affect grain trade flows though trade mechanism, and affect trade policies through trade isolation mechamism. Fourth, the international price fluctuations make China’s domestic wheat gap between production and demand larger, the rice gap smaller and has a bidirectional influnce on soyabeans gap, and has no significant effect on the maize gap. Fifth, by transport costs transmission channels, the international oil prices has important effects on China’s corn and soyabean prices, has no significant effect on wheat and rice prices.The transmiting speed of soyabean prices at home and abroad is faster than thatof corn, and the wheat and rice prices transmiting are insignificant.The transmiting velocity of international oil prices to domestic corn prices is faster than that of corn prices home and abroad. While the transmiting velocity of international oil prices to domestic soybean prices is slower than that of soybean prices prices home and abroad. Sixth, the price fluctuations international food, financial assets and energy have asymmetric effects on food trades. International food price volatility raise world food trade, the demand shocks result in a decline in world food trade, financial shocks lead to world food trade volume contraction, and energy shocks raise world food trade. International food price volatility and the financial shocks lead China’s grain trade volume to shrink, but they have different influences on imports and exports. Seventh, the international price swings increase the trade isolation between China’s main food trading partners and the world, and compared with feed, food price fluctuations can cause more significant policy changes.Based on the above analysis, this paper finally put forward corresbonding measures in order to maintain security of our country food trade., including that keep balance between grain supply and demand, promote the competitiveness of the food industry in China, make a stable domestic grain market, strength the early warning and control of external impact factors, adopt different measures to cope with the international price swings’s effects on domestic food and feed grain gaps, be watchful for energy prices transmiting to domestic food prices, emphasis on strategic control mechanism of food import and export, and carry international food trade security cooperation policy.