An Empirical Study On The Influencing Factors On International Food Price Volatility

In recent years,China's import trade scale of grain has been larger and larger,and the size of the grain trading has increased.The international food price volatility has greater impact on China's import and export trade.In this context,exploring the characteristics about international food price volatility,and analyzing its influencing factors in-depth is good for our country to work together to address global food price volatility and maintain food security.The thesis analyzes international food price volatility with the method named HP filter.On the basis,the thesis uses qualitative and quantitative analysis to show factors which influence the international food price volatility from the perspective of supply-demand and the perspective of institution.The results show international food price generally experienced a fluctuated period,and then became stable,and finally has been full of volatility from 1973 to 2014.For the overall trend component,there is long-term upward trend in international prices.For the cycling component,the international food price volatility presents increased peak gradually and the time interval between peaks became shorter and shorter.Through the empirical analysis on the influencing factors of international food price volatility,this thesis shows that the global population,the world GDP,energy price,fertilizer price and the global CO2 emissions have positive effects on international food price volatility,while the square of global grain plantings and US dollar exchange rate show different relation with international food price.Besides,the impact of energy prices gradually increased over time,and the impact of fertilizer price fluctuations on international food prices is obvious,but the effects of global CO2 emissions may decrease.In the long term,the US dollar exchange rate has a stable negative effect on international prices volatility.Our country has great scale of food import and export trading,and the international food price volatility affects China's import and export trade significantly.Therefore,China should master international prices volatility features well to prevent market risks raised by the volatility of international prices,to keep China's grain market stable and secure.