Empirical Analysis Of Sino-US Trade Surplus And Inflation In China

In recent years, especially after the accession to the WTO, China’s exports have maintained strong growth momentum, the total trade volume increasing year by year, the Sino-US trade volume growing rapidly, and the surplus in Sino-US trade showed a continuously increasing trend. Many studies have shown that the trade surplus caused China’s imported inflation. The greatest contribution in the trade surplus attributable to the United States, at the same time, Sino-US trade friction occurs frequently, plus the economic downturn and policy measures in the United States in recent years and its impact of China’s trade and high inflation seems to be intrinsically linked, in order to further study of the root causes of inflation in China, to solve some of the problems of China’s inflation, it is of great significance to study from the Sino-US trade surplus.Part one is introduction, mainly focused on the purpose and significance of writing background and scholars research the problem of imported inflation, as well as Sino-US trade surplus, and the research methods and structural arrangements to do a description, Based on the year of2011is a more serious inflation year in China, investments, especially real estate subject to government regulation, and consumption has been insufficient, the study of Sino-US trade surplus problem shows a reference and guiding significance to solve our imported inflation problem. The innovation of this paper is the use of factor analysis and stepwise analysis on Sino-US trade surplus of factors were extracted to study the impact of the Sino-US trade surplus of inflation.The second part describes the knowledge of the basic theory of inflation, such as the Keynesians inflation theory, monetarist theory of inflation, the Scandinavian model, and analyzes the reasons of the pathway trade surplus caused by inflation and the Sino-US trade surplus.The third part describes China’s trade status in the past18years, and discovered that Sino-US trade and China’s entire trade maintains a synchronized growth trend, and the proportion of Sino-US trade in China’s trade volume was increasing year by year. It shows that the largest contribution attributable to the Sino-US trade in China’s trade volume and trade surpluses. Finally, based on the theoretical basis, pathway and the reason of Sino-US trade surplus, we summarized the possibility of imported inflation by Sino-US trade surplus.The second part describes the knowledge of the basic theory of inflation, such as the Keynesians inflation theory, monetarist theory of inflation, the Scandinavian model, and analyzes the reasons of the pathway trade surplus caused by inflation and the Sino-US trade surplus.The fourth part is the part of empirical analysis, based on the above factors may lead to Sino-US trade surplus, we operated factor analysis and step by step analysis to extract an important factor in Sino-US trade surplus, and then based on these important factors and China’s inflation (Consumption Price Index) constructed an econometric model to study the relationship between the Sino-US trade surplus with China’s inflation and the impact on China’s inflation.In part five, with the study results of the fourth part, the paper gave some suggestions for enhancing our benefits in Sino-US trade and reducing the impact on our inflation by Sino-US trade surplus.In part six, the paper concludes the whole article research:the thesis begins with the status quo in Sino-US trade, and gives empirical analysis on the relation between China’s inflation and Sino-US trade surplus, furthermore, generates several relative political suggestions.