A Statistical Study On The Import And Export Trade Of Shandong Customs

In the 21 st century, economic globalization and regional group has become the two major trends of the world economy. None country can develop in isolation. It has become an important condition for promoting the world economy that worldwide economic and trade cooperation.Since the reform in China, Shandong province has made great progress in foreign trade and economic cooperation based on its location. However, as far as the circumstances in eastern coast of China and the Asia Pacific region, there are still more need to develop foreign trade with regional advantages.It is important to study the custom import and export trade of Shandong province, from which we can adjust the structure of industry chain and trade and give full use of the advantages of provincial resources. Also we can optimize trade to choose the most suitable trade way and promote the development of economy. As for the problem on import and export trade of Shandong province, previous findings are confined to foreign trade commodity structure, market structure, the main structure of management, trade partners and the trade ways related to that of Shandong trade. They also study the countries which have trade relationship with Shandong province. In this paper, we analysis the research from the general trade(1x), material processing and assembling trade(2x), feed processing trade(3x), and other trade(4x) four aspects carries.By studying the trade data of Shandong province since the reform has opened up, we establish regression model and choose the significant factor in Shandong trade. Finally, according to the present situation and development trend of the current international foreign trade, we put forward to the transformation of the mode of foreign trade growth to adjust the structure of foreign trade and related policies in last.This paper is divided into four parts:Firstly, we introduce some knowledge of the world trade and the problem of the customs import and export trade in Shandong research background and significance. Then we introduce the current situations of this reach.Secondly, the correlation and the stepwise regression method were introduced. There are three kinds of method to choose variable: forward method, backward method, stepwise regression method. That the former two methods have distinct shortcomings, we choose the stepwise regression method in order to ensure the validity of the model.Thirdly, we establish regression model with stepwise regression with R software, then we make principal component analysis, use principal component analysis as variables, establish regression model. Stepwise regression analysis method is one of the best way to eliminate variables linear correlation and test regression model. In order to ensure the validity of the regression model, we first establish model of every variable on the dependent variable. Then with stepwise regression, we establish the regression model of each independent variable. When choosing variables, we use the size of the pvalues.-Finally, we put forward corresponding suggestions and adjust foreign trade policies through the regression model.Previous papers and survey researches are on countries trade with Shandong province or study of Shandong import and export of goods, such as agricultural productions, wines and other productions. A different approach in this paper, through studying trade type for the strength of the effect of import and export trade, put forward the corresponding transformation of the model of trade and adjust the structure of foreign trade policies.