| Since China carried out reform and open policy for more than30years, our economic growth has made a great achievement in the world, and in2010China’s GDP has caught up with Japan becoming the second largest economy. The factors influencing China’s economic growth are varies, including population, institution, technical progress, capital input and the increase of foreign trade and so on. So, this paper tries to analyse the different factors’contribution to the economic growth from the aspects of theory and empirical study, in order to obtain the characteristics of China’s economic growth at present stage and the equilibrium growth path in the long run. The research is of great significance to the steady growth and how to escape the middle-income trap.On the theoretical side, the paper, borrowing the analytical method of neoclassical growth theory, based on the generalized Cobb-Douglas production function, absorbing the endogenous growth theory’s point about human capital and the institutional economics’point about institution, constructs a production function with material capital, human capital, technical progress and institutional change. In which the production function of human capital is reference for the one of Lucas model, that is, the growth of human capital is depended upon the percent of time people are involved in human capital accumulation, in addition, the growth rates of technical progress and institutional change are supposed to be constant, for simplifying the model. The result in this part is, when the institution reaches a steady state, the economic growth is depended on the growth rate of population, technical progress and human capital, and when the institution is unsteady, for example, a sizable step backward as much as the sum of the growth of the rest factors, the real economic growth will be slower than the growth rate of population which is the stable growth rate in the basic Solow-Swan model.On the empirical side, the paper uses the time series data to research the contribution degree of different factors; at this part, the existence quantity of human capital is replaced by the education attainment, technical progress by the existence quantity of R&D, and the institution change by the degree of marketization process which is presented by the ratio of the industrial output of non-governmental economy of the whole industrial output. In this analysis, the material capital contributes57%to the economic growth, labor force contributes19%, and with every increase of the economic average education attainment, the economic growth increases19.82%, while the technical progress contributes almost0to the economy. The result is far from our general knowledge; the reason may be the low conversion ratio of technical achievement. Because of the measurement of institution, we especially analyse the impact of institution to the economy; we use the Solow residual, considering the institution change from the reform and opening up, to research the impact qualitatively. At last, we give some relevant policy suggestions according to the research results, including deepening the reform further, continuing to promote market-oriented process, establishing a healthy system of market economy, improving our legal and policy system to protect the economy’s smooth running; in addition, we also have to increase the investment in human capital from all aspects such as healthcare, education and training, and accelerate technological progress, increase the conversion ratio from technical achievement to actual productivity, enhance our capacity for independent innovation, and introduce advanced technology from abroad. |
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