Gold Price Volatility And Its Influence Factors

Due to the diversity of gold use, the complex factors that affect the price. This article first introduces the basic properties of the form of value of gold, and then to explore the reasons for the changes in the price of gold. Gold supply factors and demand factors, supply and demand gap is not caused by the main cause of changes in the price of gold, and thus more in-depth study of gold demand and supply, and found that the correlation of bullion investment of up to0.956, scrap gold supply amount the correlation of the price of gold up to0.918. Both of which are factors that affect the price of gold, in order to increase the accuracy, qualitative and quantitative analysis of the factors that affect the fluctuations in the price of gold obtained the relationship of oil prices and inflation and the price of gold is a positive relationship between the dollar, the level of interest rates, and sudden hair event with the price of gold is a negative relationship. The impact of oil prices on the price of gold, emergencies (usually refers to unexpected changes in world politics and economic) tends to create a strong impact on short-term price of gold.Around the world are concerned about the price of gold have room to rise, the paper established a short-term forecasting model for the price of gold, concluded within the next four months, the price of gold rose less than1%, in order to increase the accuracy of the forecast need to examine the current world the situation will play a role in how these factors affect the price of gold, thereby affecting the future trend of the price of gold. And the main cause future price fluctuations factors as:the dollar index (expected future suppression-up), crude oil prices (expected short-term rise), emerging countries, inflation is expected, the European debt crisis deterioration of the uncertain world economic recovery, the geopolitical is not optimistic.Based on the results of the investment recommendations. Due to a weaker dollar, resul ting in a large number of China’s foreign exchange reserves shrink, gold hedge risk aversion characteristics is particularly important that the state should be spotted timing of changes in the price of gold to increase its gold reserves. For investors, due to the recent price of gold rose marginally, we recommend investors to do long-term investment plans, taking into account the impact on the gold price factors too much and unexpected events increase the likelihood of proposed risk averse investor, invest in gold The proportion is not too large.