The Pricing Analysis Of Long-Term Care Insurance For The Aged People In China

China is facing a serious problem that population aging and chronic diseases increasing come here simultaneously. The old people in increasing numbers will face the cruel fact that they cannot take care of themselves in the future. But at the same time, the old cannot rely on their family care as before anymore because of the lack of family members. The long-term care insurance was born just for that. Even though LTCI has a mature pattern in many developed countries, it is not very familiar with Chinese people.This article introduces the LTCI experience of many foreign countries. Then I use the Manchester Method to estimate the premium of LTCI for Chinese grey people and examine whether the old can afford the LTCI under different conditions. It implies that for the urban citizens, the price of the LTCI, which insures the nursing care in the next20years and pays for the expense since the nursing care admission for5years, is quite affordable. While for the countryside people, who may face a higher premium because of their poorer health and less income, things become different. That means the government should pay enough attention to the countryside aging.At the end of this article, I predict some serious risks that Chinese LTCI may face in practical operation and try to find out how to manage them. It seems that more cautious pricing, adjusting the premium with the profit examination timely and introducing new financial products can all be good ways to handle the problem.